Coming off yet another strong season for the Baltimore Orioles, Trevor Rogers appears to be on his way to hitting free agency. The Orioles had tendered a qualifying offer to the 28-year-old southpaw, but Jon Morosi of MLB Network wrote on X that Rogers is “almost certain” to reject the qualifying offer considering that many teams would be in on him should he hit the open market.

Rogers chose the right time to have his best season yet as a big-leaguer. In 2026, he started 30 games for the Orioles and pitched in a career-high 169.2 innings. During his time on the mound, he put up an ERA of 4.03 that, while uninspiring on the surface, hides some promising underlying metrics.

He had a fielding independent pitching (FIP) of 3.45, so it means that if the Orioles played better defense, he would have allowed fewer earned runs. The 28-year-old also experienced a bit of a velocity bump in 2026, as his average fastball velocity went up to 93.8 from 92.9 in the previous year.

Rogers also did an excellent job of limiting walks, allowing just 2.07 bases on balls per nine innings. He also struck out 157 batters across 30 starts last season, and overall, he finished the campaign with an fWAR of 4.0.

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The concern over Rogers is that he doesn't have a lengthy track record of being a workhorse on the mound. He made just 18 starts in 2025 after missing the first two months of the season due to a knee injury, and he missed most of the 2023 campaign with a biceps strain.

Nonetheless, Rogers is projected to sign a long-term contract, giving him the kind of financial security he might crave instead of taking a one-year, $23.15 million deal courtesy of the qualifying offer. ESPN projects him to sign a four-year, $76 million deal, and that should be a nice payday for the 28-year-old lefty.