Which team should feel the best about their odds in the semifinals?
Eight teams entered the NWSL Playoffs with the hopes of lifting the championship. Now, the field is cut in half as we enter the semifinals.
Introducing the confidence meter where we allocate a piece of the 100% pie to all four teams. After four matches in the first round, which team will head into the semifinals with the most confidence?
NWSL Playoffs Power Rankings with Confidence Meter
1. Washington Spirit | 4-1 win vs Portland Thorns
Confidence meter: 50% (Next up: Utah Royals)
The biggest winners from the quarterfinals was by far the Washington Spirit. With the Utah Royals stunning the San Diego Wave, they’ll know have the opportunity to earn home-field advantage through the finals.
In the 4-1 demolition of Portland Thorns, Trinity Rodman and Clara Luvanga both had three goal contributions apiece. To add a cherry on top, Mélissa Bethi added a goal on top. They were on cruise control with the advantage in possession (59%-41%), expected goals (2.38 xg-0.89 xg), shots (16-11), and touches in the opposition box (28-17).
Outside of a second-half blemish, this was the exact performance Adrián González’s side desperately needed, especially from the attack.
Is this finally the year?
2. Kansas City Current | 1-0 win vs Angel City FC
Confidence meter: 25% (Next up: Gotham FC)
The main sticking point from their quarterfinal will be the foul call that awarded them the penalty kick and the win. The better side did win, albeit not in the way they’d like.
KC Current had several advantages in their match against ACFC: possession (59%-41%), xG (1.94-1.30), shots (21-14), and touches in opposition box (42-29).
The volume and quality of the chances were there, but the finishing just wasn’t.
With the firepower of duo, Temwa Chawinga and Haley Hopkins, don’t expect that to stay silent again. If they do, expect Michelle Cooper (again), Croix Bethune, Lo’eau LaBonta, or Vanessa DiBernardo to step up.
Can they overcome their 5-9-1 road record and upset the NWSL shield winners on the road?
3. Gotham FC | 1-0 win vs Seattle Reign
Confidence meter: 20% (Next up: KC Current)
Yes, they secured the own-goal for the early score in the fourth minute and held on for the 1-0 win. However, it was a brutal display of football, trademarked by their world class defense.
Gotham FC generated a measly 0.16 xG and had less shots and touches in the opposition box than Seattle Reign. Coming into the playoffs, the main concern was their attack and that performance only exasperated those issues.
Although the Bats and Current split the season series, the defense will now have to contain the top ranked attack in the NWSL. Can the attack figure it out or will it come down to backline again?
4. Utah Royals | 1-0 win at San Diego Wave
Confidence meter: 5% (Next up: Washington Spirit)
In the top story from the quarterfinals, the Utah Royals making their NWSL playoffs debut, shocked the world by taking down No. 2 seed San Diego Wave.
Kiana Palacios’ provided all the scoring they needed with the brick-wall of goalkeeper Mandy McGlynn, Kate Del Fava, and the URFC backline.
The win snapped a four match winless streak, but they’ll now need to win a second-consecutive game for the first time since July 25 - a span of 14 matches.
There are more troubling trends on top of that: held below 1.0 xG in three straight, scored 1 or fewer goals in five straight, and dominated in the metrics the past two games.
Even with the downward trends, they found a way in the first round. Is there anymore magic left to get to the final?
Confidence Meter Predictions
No. 3 Washington Spirit vs No. 7 Utah Royals | Saturday, Nov. 14 at Audi Field on CBS/Paramount+
Winner: Washington Spirit
No. 1 Gotham FC vs No. 4 Kansas City Current | Sunday, Nov. 15 at Icahn Stadium on ABC/ESPN App
Winner: KC Current