The Week 4 calendar kicks off with an AFC North showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns before blessing us with some bonus football, starting bright and early Sunday morning from London. With some big games on the schedule, this should be a fun one, so let’s jump right into the ClutchPoints NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column.
In Week 3, there were some wild upsets, shocking covers, and a ton of close games, which resulted in a bloodbath for the public. If you were able to keep it close to .500 this weekend, you should take that as a win.
At this point, the hope is that most of the teams in the NFL have gotten the surprisingly good and the woefully bad game out of their systems, and they start to settle into who they really are for the rest of the campaign. If that’s the case, the Week 4 outlook could be bright!
For the NFL Week 4 slate, we start with a Thursday nighter, get a 9:30 am ET kick from London, followed up by eight early-window Sunday games, four late-window showdowns, a Sunday night tilt, and a standalone Monday night affair.
We at least stayed consistent here at the ClutchPoints NFL picks, predictions, and odds column, posting the exact same 9-7 straight up and 7-9 against the spread records as last week. That brings us to 31-17 (64.5%) straight up and 22-25-1 (46.8%) ATS on the season thus far.
Previous weeks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3
So, let’s get right into the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds.
Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
This is tough to write as a Deshaun Watson hater, but there are several things going for the Browns on Thursday Night Football. The biggest thing from a betting perspective is that the public has been horrible at picking prime-time games this season, and they are on the Steelers in this one.
Yes, Aaron Rodgers has a good record in TNF games and first-time head coaches don’t, but with the way the Browns and Steelers are both playing right now, this game should be a close one at the very least. That’s why we’ll definitely take Cleveland to cover, and even pick an upset here.
Pick: Browns 16-14
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Washington Commanders
Favorites have generally done well in international games, and the Colts have played well in October under Shane Steichen. Throw in the fact that the Commanders' quarterback is either an injured Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota, and we like the Colts here.
Certainly, if Daniels is playing, Washington will be a little more dangerous, but it’s hard to see Mariota replicating the best game he’s had in years two weeks in a row and on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.
Pick: Colts 25-20
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)
The Ravens smoked the Colts in Week 1, and the Colts are a better team than the Titans, so it is understandable that the public is taking the Ravens by a wide margin here. Not to mention, Lamar Jackson has been good throughout his career when favored by nine or more.
All that said, the Ravens are coming back from Brazil, and the Titans have kept their games closer than expected through three weeks. So, while Tennessee will be bad all year, this is a good time of the season to take a chance on said bad team popping up and at least challenging a good team. That’s why we’ll hold our noses and take the Titans to cover.
Pick: Ravens 30-20
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Ben Johnson is in his bag right now, and it doesn’t really matter who the quarterback is. Plus, the Bears have a bit of an advantage by not having to name a starting QB until Sunday. That little bit of doubt should be enough to run circles around Aaron Glenn.
This is a good coach vs. a bad coach matchup, and the ClutchPoints NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column likes the good coach to win and cover. Chicago won’t be able to beat everyone without Caleb Williams coming back healthy, but they should have enough to beat the Jets solidly.
Pick: Bears 28-23
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is the Against the Spread Bowl, as neither of these teams has covered in an astonishing 14 weeks, dating back to last season. This makes the Packers and Buccaneers arguably the two most disappointing teams in the NFL over the last calendar year.
This game could go either way, and eventually, one of these teams will cover and break the streak. It’s pretty much a toss-up in Vegas, as the public is around 51% on the Bucs. However, one of these teams has its starting quarterback, and as rough a season as Jordan Love is having, he’s still that guy.
Pick: Packers 16-10
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
After losing a tough divisional game, the Bengals should come out refocused here and ready to shoot it out with the Jaguars. Additionally, the Jaguars should come back down to earth when they play a good team after waxing the Browns and the Patriots in the first two weeks.
The ClutchPoints NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column likes the Bengals to win here and cover, as these two teams are relatively evenly matched and should be squads that could see each other again in the AFC playoffs.
Pick: Bengals 24-20
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
If you want to go with the Patriots here because of the trends, that’s OK. Good teams coming off a big loss, and Mike Vrabel teams in the same situation, tend to do well straight up and against the spread.
The issue we have with the ClutchPoints NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column is that we don’t believe the Patriots are good right now or that Vrabel is his old self after his tumultuous offseason. That’s why we’ll roll with MVP favorite Josh Allen and the Bills after their own ugly game that they pulled out thanks to the lowly Chargers.
Pick: Bills 35-16
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at New York Giants
The Cardinals are just 1-2 right now, but they’ve looked frisky in two of those games, and the offense can put up points. With a backup quarterback and a banged-up defense with a questionable secondary, the Giants are in a rough spot right now.
It’s hard to take a team that has an over/under of five wins coming into the season to cover as a road favorite, but Mike LaFleur’s offense is looking legit right now, and as much trouble as the G Men had with the Titans last week, they won’t be able to hang with a spry Cardinals’ offense.
Pick: Cardinals 24-12
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-2.5)
The public loves the Cowboys here, but 0-3 teams vs. teams with a win generally do well against the spread. Dallas is also coming back from an international game, so there may be some travel fatigue as well.
CJ Stroud and the Texans' offense are a big concern here. Even against good defenses, Dak Prescott can score a lot of points. It’s desperation time in Houston, though, and if you have any faith in the Texans turning this around, this is the game it has to start.
Article Continues BelowPick: Texans 27-23
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
As good and as well-coached as the Rams are, they are a team built on superstars and a genius head coach, who does things like revolutionize the three-tight end formation. Well, when several of your superstars (Myles Garrett, Puka Nacua, maybe Davante Adams) and tight ends (Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson) are hurt, that takes away a lot of your advantages.
The Eagles didn’t look good at all last week in prime time, and there are plenty of issues in that franchise as well. However, at home against a banged-up Rams team, we’ll look for Jalen Hurts and company to do what they do and play to the level of their competition.
Pick: Eagles 21-20
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
Minnesota is a good team in the real world, but with the way the offense is playing, it is hard to see them covering such a big number. Yes, it is hard to put your hard-earned money on a team as bad as the Dolphins, but remember, they were on their way to covering in Week 3 before the refs pulled out their Chiefs flags and called that roughing the passer in the end zone.
This won’t be a pretty game, but it may be closer than meets the eye with two teams that aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts. With a double-digit spread and the chance of a late cover, we’ll take the Dolphins to lose by less than a touchdown and a field goal margin.
Pick: Vikings 13-10
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
When you are struggling as a team, going to visit the 12th Man in Seattle is not ideal. The Seahawks looked rough last week, losing to the Commanders, but Sam Darnold should look better in his second week back.
There is simply nothing we’ve seen from the Chargers that suggests they can beat a good team right now, and unless the Seahawks have greater issues than we think, they should play better on Sunday. Until they prove otherwise, we’re fading the Chargers all day.
Pick: Seahawks 23-13
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level right now, while Bo Nix is the undisputed MVP of second halves in his career. The big questions to weigh here are whether the 49ers' injuries are too much at this point, and whether the Broncos can look as good on the road as they do at home.
Where the ClutchPoints NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column comes down on those questions is that this is going to be a close game, and we’ll take unfamiliar surroundings over injuries. This matchup may favor the 49ers for a majority of the time, but we’re betting that Nix and company will make it close late, and even win the game.
Pick: Broncos 28-27
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The overall opinion of the ClutchPoints NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column is that the Raiders are for real this season as a legit playoff contender. That said, they’ve faced Malik Willis, the ghost of Justin Herbert, and Tyler Shough to create their 3-0 record this season.
Yes, this is a division game, and there have been some small cracks that haven’t truly broken yet in the Chiefs’ offense, but Patrick Mahomes is still a great QB who doesn’t make the silly mistakes those other QBs do. If the Raiders win this one, good on them, but for now, we’ll take the team and the QB (and the refs) we know like to cover.
Pick: Chiefs 24-17
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are on an incredible roll or covering right now, falling on the right side of the spread for the last 12 games in a row. That’s the third-longest streak in league history. While it’s tempting to say that it is due to end, we will try to ride this wave a little bit longer.
In football terms, the Panthers are a solid team this season who have played some good games, while the Lions have a lot of shiny offensive weapons but aren’t the team they once were with Ben Johnson. We like this to be a close game either way, so we’ll take the home dogs to at least cover.
Pick: Lions 33-31
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
You may be better off picking a name out of a hat or shooting at a dartboard when the NFC South get together. This division is completely wacky (and quite bad), so you never know which teams are going to show up on a given weekend.
On Monday, a Saints bounce-back and a Falcons return to earth is what may seem most likely, but in the end, with Michael Penix Jr. back in action, the Falcons offense under Kevin Stefanski might really have something. We’ll take Atlanta for the upset.
Pick: Falcons 24-23