New Zealand's winning streak at home under threat in Hamilton

If Auckland and Wellington were seam-friendly because a wet spring pretty much all over New Zealand has resulted in underprepared pitches, Hamilton could be just as juicy, if not more. On the eve of the third ODI, the ground staff at Seddon Park had only half a day to prepare the pitch before rain arrived and forced India to train indoors. Under covers, the surface will sweat a lot. The forecast for match day is not great either.

All this unfortunately makes the toss more important than usual, not necessarily because the pitch settles down, but because chasing teams know what method works and what target to work towards, which is not quite clear to the team batting first in these conditions. In Wellington, for example, it was difficult to work the ball around so batters had to be ultra aggressive against anything loose. India scored 78 of their 113 runs in boundaries; New Zealand only 60 of their 134.

Law of averages should suggest that Mitchell Santner wins a toss anytime now. In seven international matches on this tour, he has won only one, that too in a dead rubber where India wanted to experiment by batting first anyway. They even switched from their usual call of tails, which has incredibly been the outcome at all seven tosses.

The toss hasn't been New Zealand's only issue though. Some of their batters are in danger of playing themselves out of World Cup consideration after getting chances through injuries to others. There aren't going to be any changes mid-series, but Will Young, Tim Seifert, Henry Nicholls and even Tom Latham have had questions around their places. New Zealand will love for one of them to get them to a good score.

While India's bowlers have enjoyed their days in the sun (metaphorically), the batters, especially the ones in the middle order, have been given a working over. The team management will be thankful for it because ODI cricket elsewhere is played on such flat surfaces that most teams might be going blind into the World Cup in the southern African spring. That they have come out victorious twice should only strengthen the team management's belief in them.

New Zealand: LLLWW(last five completed ODIs, most recent first)
India: WWLWW

Tall fast bowler hitting a hard length, angling into off stump, the ball seaming away and taking the outside edge for a golden duck. Kyle Jamieson, said bowler, will want to repeat this scene in the Tests. Shubman Gill, the batter at the receiving end and as of now in ODI rhythm of playing at most deliveries, will want to avoid a repeat. They will meet again one more time before Gill leaves the ODI side to vice-captain Shreyas Iyer and starts preparing for the Tests. Another teaser on a spicy pitch before the real thing is something to look forward to in Hamilton.

The injury list keeps getting longer for New Zealand. Blair Tickner went down with a concussion after suffering a blow to the back of his head while batting. Matt Henry, who collided with Devon Conway on the eve of the series, is yet to be cleared of concussion and has been advised to target the fourth ODI for his return. Kristian Clarke has been called in as cover.

New Zealand (probable): 1 Will Young, 2 Tim Seifert, 3 Henry Nicholls, 4 Daryl Mitchell, 5 Glenn Phillips, 6 Tom Latham (wk), 7 Mitchell Santner (capt.), 8 Nathan Smith, 9 Kyle Jamieson, 10 Matt Fisher/Kristian Clarke, 11 Jacob Duffy

India have no reason to change what has worked for them, with this being the last match before Gill leaves the ODI squad.

India (probable): 1 Rohit Sharma, 2 Shubman Gill (capt.), 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Shreyas Iyer, 5 KL Rahul (wk), 6 Naman Dhir, 7 Axar Patel, 8 Anshul Kamboj, 9 Auqib Nabi, 10 Gurnoor Brar, 11 Arshdeep Singh

The weather forecast is not promising. There could be significant interruptions to the game, and the pitch should be seam friendly.