One weekend was enough to shake up the race to Atlanta, and the Cricket Celebration Bowl's latest Toyota Championship Projection shows how much.
South Carolina State still sits atop of the MEAC. The Bulldogs reach the Celebration Bowl in 40.63 percent of the 10,000 computer simulations, ahead of Howard at 27.94 percent and Morgan State at 25.40 percent. In the SWAC, Alabama A&M still has the clearest path, at 49.10 percent to win the conference title and make the trip to Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Last week's results did most of the damage. Howard went into Baltimore and beat Morgan State 26-20 in overtime. Bethune-Cookman edged Jackson State 24-21. South Carolina State took care of Norfolk State, 22-7. Those games moved Howard and Bethune-Cookman up the board and made things harder for Morgan State and Jackson State, who both held very different positions a week earlier.
The projection includes games played through Oct. 24. It weighs how strong each team is right now, how efficiently it scores against FCS opponents, where it stands in its conference, what is left on its schedule, where those games are played and how the tiebreakers work. The rest of the season is then played out thousands of times to see how often each team ends up in Atlanta. It is not a prediction, and it will change as more games are played.
The full projections are below.
MEAC Championship Projection
| Rank | Team | Championship Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Carolina State | 40.63% |
| 2 | Howard | 27.94% |
| 3 | Morgan State | 25.40% |
| 4 | North Carolina Central | 4.10% |
| 5 | Delaware State | 1.16% |
| 6 | Norfolk State | 0.77% |
SWAC East Division Projection
Article Continues Below| Rank | Team | Championship Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama A&M | 60.42% |
| 2 | Bethune-Cookman | 27.16% |
| 3 | Jackson State | 10.53% |
| 4 | Alabama State | 1.7% |
| 5 | Mississippi Valley State | 0.19% |
| — | Florida A&M | 0.0% — Ineligible |
SWAC West Division Projection
| Rank | Team | Championship Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grambling State | 36.69% |
| 2 | Prairie View A&M | 32.90% |
| 3 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 14.92% |
| 4 | Alcorn State | 12.61% |
| 5 | Southern | 2.71% |
| 6 | Texas Southern | 0.17% |