Sunday’s game between the Patriots and the Jaguars will be a tiebreaker, in two different ways.

First, Lawrence has a 1-1 record in his career against New England. Second, Lawrence has a 3-3 record against teams coached by Mike Vrabel.

Vrabel, who hasn’t faced Lawrence since the final game of Vrabel’s tenure in Tennessee (a 28-20 win by the Jaguars to cap the 2023 season), was asked by reporters on Wednesday what he has seen from Lawrence in recent years.

“I think he is just much more decisive and comfortable,” Vrabel said. “I think you could always count on some turnovers, maybe three or four years ago. I don’t think that is necessarily the case now. He has done a really fantastic job of being able to move the ball downfield, but keep it out of harm’s way. He’s decisive when he scrambles. It’s a guaranteed first down, if not longer, when he decides to scramble. Those aren’t even the designed run plays. Those are drop back passes that turn into play extensions, and he is either keeping his eyes downfield and hitting somebody, or he’s decisive and he is willing to scramble. So, I just see a lot of maturity, and he is playing at a high level.”

Lawrence could be counted on for a turnover (or two) into last season. After, however, a four-turnover day in a 27-24 overtime win over the Cardinals in Week 12 (three interceptions, one lost fumble), Lawrence settled down, considerably. Over the final six regular-season games of 2025, Lawrence had one turnover (an interception in Week 17 vs. the Colts) and 19 total touchdowns.

The trend continued into Week 1, when Lawrence had four touchdown passes and only five incompletions in a 34-10 win over the Browns.

Against the Broncos, Lawrence threw an interception in a 20-13 loss at Denver.

Lawrence was swept by Vrabel’s Titans as a rookie in 2021. The next year, Lawrence’s Jaguars swept Tennessee. In 2023, Vrabel’s final season with the Titans, they split the series, 1-1. In those six games, Lawrence had 13 total touchdowns and eight turnovers — including two games with four touchdowns and no turnovers and one game with no touchdowns and four turnovers.

Against the Patriots, Lawrence and the Jaguars lost badly in Week 17 of his rookie year: 50-10, with one touchdown and three turnovers. In 2024, Lawrence and the Jaguars beat New England, 32-16; he had one touchdown and no turnovers.

Obviously, any team has a better chance of winning if the quarterback takes care of the ball. For New England to get to 2-1, the Patriots will need to get Lawrence to make a mistake or two, and to keep him from scoring repeatedly with his arm or his legs.