LONDON -- A deeper crisis barely averted by an avalanche of mediocre shots, Manchester United head into the autumn in much the same position they tend to find themselves at this time of year. Questions over the suitability of the manager bubble away as ownership draw the ire of supporters and too many players offer a reminder that they can always dip below a low bar.
Had Matheus Cunha's tame effort, the 26th shot on the Fulham goal, not taken a fortunate deflection off David Affengruber, then there was no question that the hosts would hold on for a valuable win in what seems destined to be a battle against the drop. Alvaro Arbeloa's side had looked some way from Premier League standards in their first four games of the season; today they looked the better team against a supposedly Champions League calibre opponent. The ingenuity, verve and effort all came from those in Fulham colors.
A desperate late heave does not change the harsh reality United face. Nor will it do more than ensure that the volume is not turned up on the noise that will surely surround Old Trafford over the next three weeks of the international break. Such seems to be the way of things at this stage of every United season. The sort of quiet competence that got Carrick the permanent job in the first place looks ever more like the exception rather than the rule.
Indeed, Carrick and his coaching staff could probably do worse over the coming days than to comb through the spring files in pursuit of the missing ingredients from that run up the table. It is not like the answers would elude him for long. What United had in the second half of last season was an extremely competent anchoring midfield of Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes, comfortably the best attacker in the league.
At least one of those is not coming back. The other? Well, that is a real worry. Of course Fernandes is not remotely the reason why United so very nearly lost at Craven Cottage. Indeed, he was arguably the most threatening of the front four, creating four chances and taking three shots, a first-time flick against the post one of the vanishingly rare occasions the visitors actually took a good shot.
Dropping deep to aid a faltering build-up, he was a key ball progression engine for United while also functioning as the hub in the attacking third, always delivering those classically Fernandes high-risk, high-reward passes into the box. By the final whistle, he had 0.28 expected goals, 0.17 expected assists, combined output that only attacking midfielders with the most remarkable standards would sniff at.
Attacking midfielders such as Fernandes, at the peak of his efficacy. Last season under Carrick, 0.45 xG+xA in a Premier League game would have constituted an underwhelming afternoon for a player who was putting up 0.65 xG+xA per 90. United flew up the league in no small part because his expected output was so eclipsed by his actual, 13 assists and four goals at a rate of just over one per 90.
The early months of this year were Fernandes doubling down every hand and the dealer showing him an ace every time. In eight of United's final 17 league games, the Portuguese playmaker provided a goal or an assist that meaningfully impacted the number of points won by his side. Of course, it would not have been as if this team would have been playing with one fewer if their output leader got taken out. When Fernandes was that good,ÃÂ you do wonder, though.
Was being the operative word. Fernandes is still great, just no longer the best creator in the league by a long shot. Five games into this one, it looks as if he is on a level with the likes of Martin Odegaard and Rayan Cherki. That's elite company to keep. He just is not separated from them as he was last season.
Take best-in-the-league Fernandes out of this team and you end up with a side worryingly light on attacking ideas. If their captain isn't teeing them up, United cannot make good shots for themselves. Carrick's side rank 84th of 96 teams in Europe's top five divisions for xG per shot, 87th for the proportion of shots taken in the box. No wonder they have to take so many of them to get one goal.
It is worth saying at this point that 20% of United's league minutes have come against an Ipswich side that completely lost the run of itself at Old Trafford and could not stop allowing high-value shots. That is why United's xG ranks so high but the more you see of this team, the more you feel compelled to discount that game until it gets washed out in the aggregate. Do that and the only teams with a worse xG per shot are Getafe and Paderborn. When Carrick points to the Fulham goalkeeper as "probably man of the match," he seems to ignore the fact that it is a lot easier for Bernd Leno to make his saves when the ball has 20 yards to travel.
Without Fernandes to craft openings, this became a battle of system vs. system, team vs. team. And on those terms Fulham were more than a match for United. There was an almighty dose of fortune in their opener, Senne Lammens parrying Calvin Bassey's shot only to see Lisandro Martinez's heavy touch divert it into his own net. There was no such good luck in the muscle that Bassey showed to win a ball that should have been Cunha's.
Basic errors plagued this performance. A bit of interchanging and Antonee Robinson or Alex Iwobi would find space to attack down the left, Bryan Mbeumo not tracking, Diogo Dalot picking the worst of several bad options available to him by doing nothing. Look at the progressive passes Fulham were able to make up the middle of the pitch. This really should not happen to United, particularly against an opponent who look like they will be dicing with danger come the end of the season.
Five months ago United might well have faced these same issues. A largely unchanged front four might still have put pressure on the ball too diffidently; a largely unchanged back five might still have struggled to defend space. Play this game back in April, though, and more likely than not Fernandes would have done something magic to turn one point into three. Without him operating at the highest of levels, there seems to be a worryingly low ceiling to what United might achieve.
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