Jeremiah Smith's Heisman Odds Meet Indiana's Defensive Challenge

Which is larger right now: the size of the Curt Cignetti cult or the glut of Jeremiah Smith worshipers?

What makes this a particularly tough call is the fact that Cignetti, the head coach for No. 5 Indiana that carries a 22-game winning streak into Saturday’s Big Ten showdown against No. 4 Ohio State, also worships the junior Buckeyes wideout.

If a coaching god treats you like the king, can anything be better?

“Not only do (the Buckeyes) have a lot of excellent players, they got a wild player,” Cignetti said Monday. “That’s the only word to describe him that I can think of.”

It is wild to recognize that halfway through the 2026 season, a wide receiver already has become the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. According to FanDuel, Smith sits at -210 to become the fifth wide receiver to claim the Heisman in its 91-year history. Miami QB Darian Mensah ranks second at +1000.

Mensah, mind you, has completed 84.2% of his passes for the nation’s No. 3 team while piling up 15 TD passes with no picks. He boasts college football’s best passer efficiency rating (212.2) since they started calculating this stuff in 1956 -- yet he’s in a different zip code than Smith for the Heisman.

That’s how amazing Smith happens to be – and how deflating it will be if he and the Buckeyes again fail to solve Indiana on Saturday.

“There’s no one like him right now playing at this level,” Cignetti said. “He’s a freak -- and we’re going to have to do a great job on him.”

Here’s the thing: The Hoosiers didn’t do a great job on him last year when it was No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana in the Big Ten championship game, yet Indiana still pulled off the 13-10 win. Smith caught eight passes for 144 yards, but he didn’t score.

Indiana’s secondary is not as good or as experienced as last year’s crew, so it will be that much tougher to keep Smith out of the end zone – especially considering he has racked up eight touchdowns in three Big Ten games.

This potential mismatch could go a long way toward explaining why all the big sportsbooks have Ohio State as a 3.5-point favorite to win on Indiana’s home field.

But then there’s the Cignetti factor, even if he downplays such a thing.

“You know, if I had a big secret, I wouldn’t tell everyone,” Cignetti said. “But at the end of the day, the players make the plays and you just try to put them into position to make the plays.”

Yeah, that’s all it takes. The coach doesn’t shop for the players, doesn’t set the standards for them to reach, doesn’t imbue them with the mindset that they can handle any deficit.

Cignetti’s aura (do the kids still say that?) is worth at least a field goal each week. Did Indiana show any signs of panic last week when trailing Nebraska by 11 early in the fourth quarter? Nope. Did they look stressed at any point last season, even when trailing in the final seconds at Penn State? Nope.

Now, Ohio State has a bigger budget than Indiana and more great players. But the Buckeyes might not have the ideal offensive scheme to snap Indiana’s winning streak.

Indiana ranks fifth nationally in scoring defense (11.8 points per game), but it has been susceptible to dual-threat quarterbacks. Northwestern’s Aidan Chiles and Nebraska’s Anthony Colandrea both made the most of their legs against the Hoosiers.

Ohio State QB Julian Sayin has never been that guy. In 76 career rushing attempts (which includes sacks), he has minus-3 rushing yards and just 2 TDs.

Perhaps the Buckeyes have been waiting to unveil Sayin’s skills on the rollout and the zone option.

If Smith and the Buckeyes want to stun Cignetti in his house on Saturday, they’ll have to unveil Sayin’s previously unseen skills with the zone option and on the rollout.

Or else the Hoosiers will roll them again.