It is a Top 25 battle in the Big Ten as an undefeated Iowa heads to Ann Arbor to face Michigan. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with an Iowa-Michigan prediction and pick.
Iowa comes into the game at 3-0. They have not faced the most difficult schedule. They started with a victory over Northern Illinois, winning the game 40-0. The offense was not as good in the second game of the year, facing Iowa State. The Cyclones took a 10-0 lead, but Iowa tied the game before the end of the first half. Iowa State took the lead in the third quarter, but Iowa was able to tie the game and hit a game-winning field goal with 15 seconds left in the game. Last time out, Iowa beat Northern Iowa 55-0.
Meanwhile, Michigan is also 3-0. They opened the season against Western Michigan. It was a disaster of a game for the Wolverines, as Western Michigan hit a field goal with 35 seconds left to open a 12-7 lead. Michigan missed on the Hail Mary attempt, but after a second was controversially put back on the clock, Michigan converted, winning 13-12. While the game was weeks ago, Michigan is still catching strays for the sad victory. Regardless, Michigan would rebound. They took a 17-0 victory over Oklahoma the next week. In Week 3, Michigan dealt with turnover issues in the first half against UTEP, leading by just three at half. They would figure things out in the second half, on the way to a 52-17 victory.
Michigan and Iowa have faced off 64 times previously. Michigan has won 45 times while Iowa has won 15 times, with four ties. The Wolverines have won four straight games over Iowa, including twice in the Big Ten Championship. The last time the two faced off was in the 2023 Big Ten Championship, when Michigan won 26-0. The road team has not won since 2010, when Iowa beat Michigan in Ann Arbor
Iowa vs. Michigan Odds
Iowa: +5.5 (-110)
Michigan: -5.5 (-110)
Over: 38.5 (-112)
Under: 38.5 (-108)
Watch Iowa-Michigan LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Iowa vs. Michigan Key Injuries
Iowa- DL Kyler Gerard (Out), RB Brevin Doll (Questionable), RB Kamari Moulton (Questionable), TE DJ Vonnahme (Questionable)
Michigan- WR Braydon Alford (Out), RB Micah Ka'apana (Out), RB Jonathan Brown (Out), DE Julius Holly (Out), OL Ace Hamilton (Out), OL Andrew Balalola (Out), OL Manuel Beigel (Doubtful), DE Dom Nichols (Questionable), CB Zeke Berry (Questionable), OL Andrew Sprague (Questionable), WR Logan Forbes (Questionable)
Iowa vs. Michigan Betting Trends
– Iowa is 2-1 against the spread this year, but has not been the underdog or on the road this season.
– The Hawkeyes were 6-2-1 against the spread in conference play last year.
Article Continues Below– The under has hit in two of three games for Iowa this year.
– Michigan is 2-1 against the spread, and 2-0 since the disaster game against Western Michigan
– Michigan failed to cover in six of nine games in the Big Ten last year.
– The under has hit in two of three games for the Wolverines this year.
Keys to Iowa vs. Michigan matchup
For Iowa, it all starts on the offensive line. They are averaging 7.4 yards per carry this year, while sitting 34th in the nation in rushing yards per game. Kamari Moulton has been a star, running for 240 yards and two scores. Still, he missed the last game and is questionable for this one. Iowa still has plenty of solid running backs who can do the job. Xavier Williams has 162 yards and three scores, while Braeden Jackson has run for 155 yards and a score. Finally, Nathan McNeil has 128 yards and two touchdowns. The running game has also forced defensive units to focus on the run, allowing Hank Brown to have time in the passing game. That has led to him not turning the ball over once.
On defense, they need to get after Bryce Underwood and force mistakes. Underwood has turned over the ball multiple times this year, and when he has been pressured plus not allowed to break containment, the offense has gone stagnant. Cam Buffington has been a star for Iowa this year. He already has 27 tackles this year while having three tackles for a loss.
For Michigan, it is all about protecting the ball. Bryce Underwood has thrown just one interception. Still, the team has fumbled six times already this year, while losing four of them, and multiple of them are from Underwood. Against UTEP, two early turnovers led to 14 points. Short fields will lead to points for Iowa, something that Michigan cannot afford in this one. The Michigan offense has to also be solid on the ground. Underwood leads the team in rushing, running for 156 yards, while Jordan Marshall has run for 135 yards and two scores. Savion Hiter has not been great, running for just 3.5 yards per carry, but he has scored twice. If Michigan can keep ahead of the chains by running the ball, they could limit some of the mistakes.
On defense, Michigan needs to make Iowa one-dimensional. Iowa ran for 289 yards against Northern Illinois, leading to a 40-0 victory. Against Northern Iowa, they ran for 422 yards and put up 50 points. Against Iowa State, the Hawkeyes were only able to run for 93 yards. This led to Iowa converting just five of 15 third downs and scoring just 16 points.
Iowa vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick
Both defensive units in this game rank in the top 15 nationally in opponent points per drive. Further, both are in the bottom third of FBS in seconds per play. With neither team being overly explosive on offense, this will be a low-scoring game. With this game being a low-scoring contest, it will be a tight contest. Michigan has struggled to cover at home in conference play, and both teams have game scripts that will focus on the ground game. With Michigan struggling to hold on to the ball, Iowa is going to make this a tight game.
Final Iowa vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick: Iowa +5.5 (-110) and Under 38.5 (-108)