Air yards, whether we like it or not — and most fantasy folks definitely do not like it — are a good measure of a pass catcher’s opportunity and the type of passing volume in a given offense. That air yards don’t always translate into real, edible receiving yards is just part of our frustrating little game. We make small bets here and there and hope things break right from week to week and prove our process correct more often than not. It’s not any more complicated than that, even if we desperately want it to be.
Over the past few seasons I have used this space to talk mostly about guys with exceptionally high or low touchdown rates. Air yards has mostly been a side issue in the Regression Files. That will change in 2026: I want Regression Files to be your weekly go-to for (freely available) air yards data and what it means for your various fantasy football teams.
Thanks to my friend and fellow football analytics nerd Brad Beatson, we have a more organized way of not only tracking air yards data, but a measure of which pass catchers are seeing accurate targets and which guys are not. The latter phenomenon is known in nerdy football circles as Prayer Yards, or inaccurate passes that technically award a bunch of air yards to a given receiver who rarely has a chance of converting those air yards into real yards as the football sails over their head or out of bounds or wherever else.
In this space I’m going to look powerfully into total team air yards trends, players seeing plentiful prayer yards, and those who are outperforming their air yards profile and (perhaps) due for the bad kind of regression.
Total Team Air Yards
Below is a quick look at league leaders in total team air yards through two weeks of the regular season.
Houston Texans
Perhaps I should have seen the Texans’ air yards extravaganza coming. Houston, after all, ranked ninth last season in total team air yards. They were top-five in air yards over the season’s second half. This, as Texans fans might know, is because the team can’t run the ball. That hasn’t changed in 2026 with David Montgomery as the team’s lead back. Through Week 2 only five teams have a worse rush EPA and only two teams have a lower rushing success rate. Against the Bengals in Week 2 they somehow averaged negative rushing yards before contact. That’s not easy to do.
So CJ Stroud and the Texans have no choice but to let it rip. On Sunday against Cincy they were 13.2 percent above their expected pass rate, the second highest PROE of the week. That produced a whopping 445 air yards, enough to send both Xavier Hutchinson and Jared Wayne over 100 air yards. Hutchinson converted that opportunity in 37 receiving yards; Wayne had 33 yards. It was extremely bleak for Houston.
The takeaway here might be that the Texans will continue producing gobs of air yards by default. That, of course, won’t result in 50 attempts a game for Stroud. But teams that rank among the highest total team air yards totals can support a couple pass catchers every week. Nico Collins will be one of those guys when he returns from injury. Maybe Hutchinson or Dalton Schultz -- who had 80 air yards on 14 targets in Week 2 -- could be the other beneficiary. Don’t forget Kayshon Boutte, an air yards eater who’s still getting acclimated to the Houston offense.
Detroit Lions
Detroit’s abomination of a defense probably means Dan Campbell’s offense is going to have to keep the Air Yards Machine turned up to 11 for most (all) of this season. In Week 2 that machine produced 312 total team air yards, the sixth most in the NFL. The air yards will continue until morale improves.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ air yards numbers are a bit deceiving. Yes, technically Mike McCarthy’s offense has produced the sixth most air yards this season. Aaron Rodgers has been horrific, however, especially on deep throws to DK Metcalf — last week’s Regression Files cover guy — and Roman Wilson.
The Steelers through Week 2 lead the league in incomplete air yards. Metcalf, with a mind-numbing 80 percent prayer yards rate, leads all pass catchers in incomplete air yards. Wilson isn’t too far behind. Math tells us Metcalf and/or Wilson should eventually see the good kind of regression. I’m not sure how bankable that will be with a quarterback with a 55 percent catchable throw rate on downfield attempts.
Tampa Bay Bucs
Everything about the Tampa offense stinks. Baker Mayfield is miserably inaccurate on long balls, the team’s screens seem to be designed to lose yards, and pass catchers appear unsure of where to be or what to do on any given dropback. It’s all bad.
Nevertheless, the air yards persist. The Bucs, after producing 412 total air yards in Week 2 against the Browns — the second most on the week — now rank fourth in air yards. A porous defense and a so-so run game could lead to a bunch of weirdly high air yards totals for the Bucs this season.
Washington Commanders
Only the Bucs and Texans racked up more total air yards than the Commanders in Week 2. Here’s the nice thing: We know (generally) where the ball is going, as Washington QBs have targeted receivers at the league’s third highest rate (71 percent). Only five offenses have a higher downfield passing rate (16 percent) than the Commanders this season.
Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs have combined to account for 55 percent of the team’s air yards through two games, with Dyami Brown a not-so-distant third. Marcus Mariota under center for the injury-marred Jayden Daniels should further cement the Commanders as an air yards-producing offense. It was Mariota who last season led the NFL in air yards per pass attempt (10.2).
Here are NFL offenses with the fewest air yards through Week 2.
Minnesota Vikings
Kevin O’Connell’s offense isn’t creating the kind of air yards to which fantasy nerds have become accustomed. In Week 1 the Vikings ranked 22nd in total air yards; in Week 2 only six teams had fewer air yards. It should change the way we view the Minnesota offense.
Justin Jefferson’s 54 percent air yards share likely means he can overcome the relative lack of air yards and post weekly top-12 numbers, while Jordan Addison is down bigly. Addison through two games has a humble 18.5 percent air yards share, and a similar air yards total as Laquon Treadwell and Cooper Kupp. Addison won’t be fantasy viable until he starts seeing a greater share of the Vikings’ diminishing air yards pie. I take no pleasure in saying so.
LA Rams
You see why it might just not be possible for Terrance Ferguson to maintain fantasy viability when Puka Nacua (groin) returns to the Rams lineup. There aren’t a lot of air yards to go around. Davante Adams will get his, as will Nacua. Don’t get carried away with Ferguson after his big game against the Giants in Week 2.
Arizona Cardinals
I guess the air yards-happy days of yore are in the rearview of Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals. Arizona’s measly 106 total air yards in Week 2 was the lowest air yards total in the NFL last week. Our 2025 air yards kings are now bottom-eight in total team air yards on the year.
The Cardinals are far less aggressive so far this season. They’ve thrown downfield at a 7.6 percent rate, the ninth lowest in the league. They rank 11th in pass rate over expected and 12th in early-down pass rate. None of this means the Cards are a run-heavy offense. It does mean the ridiculous air yards production from a year ago might not be there for Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison, Jr.
Part of the problem through two weeks is an improved Arizona defense that has prevented all-out air yards bonanzas for Brissett and his pass catchers. Wilson becomes a shaky option if this persists. MHJ, a Never Good all-star seeing a target on 5 percent of his pass routes, should probably not be rostered in 12-team leagues.
Prayer Yards Warriors (Players Who Could See Positive Regression)
George Pickens (DAL)
Pickens, as seen above, has run ice cold through two games. Two-thirds of his air yards have been deemed prayer yards. Meanwhile, just 33 percent of CeeDee Lamb’s air yards have been prayer yards. So it goes.
Pickens, being targeted on a sturdy 25 percent of his routes and enjoying a 37 percent air yards share, will be fine in a Dallas offense that ranks first (by a lot) in pass rate over expected and seventh in neutral early-down pass rate. The Cowboys for now rank 13th in total team air yards. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re inside the top five by October.
Ted Hurst (TB)
Only 11 wideouts have more air yards than Hurst this season despite the rookie running a route on just 67 percent of Tampa’s dropbacks. He’s gobbling up air yards in a pass-first offense, and came terribly close to coming down with a deep ball that would have catapulted the Bucs past the Browns in Week 2. Hurst’s 38 percent air yards share led all Tampa pass catchers in Week 2. He ranked sixth among all wideouts in air yards last Sunday.
Of course I’d feel better about Hurst’s prospects if Baker Mayfield weren’t so miserably inaccurate. A slightly higher route rate and continued downfield chances could make Hurst a weekly matchup flipper though.
Isaac TeSlaa (DET)
Amon-Ra St. Brown, after taking in 45 percent of the team’s air yards against the Bills on Thursday night, has accounted for 39 percent of Detroit’s air yards. That’s not interesting though. Here’s what’s interesting: Isaac TeSlaa, who ran a route on 75 percent of the team’s dropbacks in Week 2, saw a 25 percent air yards share against Buffalo while Jameson Williams had a 12 percent share.
Averaging nearly 16 air yards per target isn’t going to make TeSlaa a consistent producer. It will give him upside though, and that’s all you care about if you’re desperate enough to use TeSlaa as a flex (or second flex). More of that sort of air yards eating could make TeSlaa interesting as a volatile option in the pass-first Detroit offense. It’s hard to find a receiver who’s due for more (positive) regression than TeSlaa.
Adonai Mitchell (NYJ)
Mitchell is who we thought he was: A guy who gets separation downfield and greedily shoves air yards into his gaping maw. Mitchell, with a nice little 60 percent air yards share, has the seventh most air yards in the NFL through two games.
Fifty-seven percent of his air yards qualify as prayer yards because Geno Smith has been less-than-stellar on deep shots this season. Only Terry McLaurin has more incompleted air yards than Mitchell through two weeks. In short, he’s running cold, very cold.
Running 76 percent of the routes in the New York offense, Mitchell could (maybe) see the good sort of regression come his way this week against a miserable Lions coverage unit that has allowed the NFL’s seventh highest rate of explosive receiving yards and the sixth highest completion rate over expected on targets of more than 20 yards. Mitchell’s Week 3 matchup should, I think, make him tough to bench in 12-team formats.
Matthew Golden (GB)
Sixty percent of Golden’s air yards through two games have been prayer yards. That’s because Jordan Love has been the NFL’s most inaccurate passer not named Cooper Rush through two weeks. It’s a stat I was barely able to spit out during Tuesday’s Rotoworld Football Show. Love, for once, is not making the spreadsheets hum.
Christian Watson holds a slim air yards lead over Golden (34 percent to 31 percent). Both wideouts are in the top-15 air yards getters. That’s a rarity, and it should continue in a Packers offense that enters Week 3 with the third most total team air yards.
No defense has been attacked more frequently down the field than the Falcons this season. That they’ve only allowed five receptions on 14 deep targets shouldn’t dissuade you from rolling out Golden (and Watson) in Week 3.
Bullseye Enjoyers (Players Who Could See Negative Regression)
Jalen Coker (CAR)
Bryce Young has been tremendous when targeting Coker this season, as evidenced by Coker’s air yards profile: Just 25 of his 179 air yards this season have been incomplete. His prayer yards rate is a bottom-dwelling 13.6 percent.
This kind of eye-watering efficiency isn’t sustainable. Many would say it’s prone to regression (the bad kind). That Tetairoa McMillan now has a sizable air yards lead in the Panthers offense (39 percent to 28 percent for Coker) should mean McMillan emerges as the more reliable fantasy option of the two. In Week 2 against Atlanta, McMillan dominated with a 42 percent air yards share while Coker finished third in air yards behind McMillan and Xavier Legette.
This analysis could end up not mattering a whole lot if Carolina continues pouring on the air yards. They were top five in total air yards in Week 1; against the Falcons they had the eighth most. It’s a trend that should have ramifications for everyone in the Panthers offense.
Tre Tucker (LV)
Tucker’s 74 percent bullseye rate should be a screaming sign of soon-to-come regression. Yes, he’s running 76 percent of the routes in the Raiders offense. That’s good. And yes, he leads the team with a 39 percent air yards share. This kind of air yards conversion rate can’t continue though. My spreadsheets say so.
Kirk Cousins isn’t exactly ripping downfield shots to his receivers. He has five downfield throws through two games, and the Vegas offense ranks 19th in total team air yards. I would advise you to think twice before chasing Tucker’s fat Week 2 stat line.
Dontayvian Wicks (PHI)
Wicks’ 79 percent bullseye rate has gone a long way toward turning his inherently volatile targets into actual, real-life fantasy points. We don’t often see a guy with a 15.8 average depth of target catch 70 percent of his targets over a long span. That’s exactly what Wicks has done in Philly’s first two games (while running a solid 73 percent of the team’s routes).
The Eagles’ near-total inability to establish the run has led to an unusually pass-first approach in this early season. That — along with Dallas Goedert’s injury-related absence — should keep Wicks in the running as a usable fantasy option. Just know the Regression Reaper is lurking here, as it does so often with downfield pass catchers.
Kalif Raymond (CHI)
Raymond through two weeks leads the Chicago offense with 124 receiving yards while running a meager 65 percent of the team’s routes. His 27 percent target per route run rate leads the Bears by a wide margin. And most importantly, he has a 98 percent bullseye rate.
Short-area pass catchers like Raymond -- he has a 5.1 aDOT through two games -- often have a high air yards conversion rate. Ninety-eight percent is ridiculous though. When Raymond’s bullseye rate starts to slip and Luther Burden’s bullseye rate (54 percent) begins to climb, things might look a little more predictable in the Chicago offense. This, of course, depends on Caleb Williams coming back from his hamstring issue.
