It’s the beginning of the bye weeks, and that means it’s the beginning of some dire times for the column. Looking at the available wideouts gave me some consternation this week. Tight end has condensed down and Trey McBride is stickied to our red carpet Detroit Lions defense, depriving us of one easy button. Running back? Well, running back has always been bad. Welcome to FLEX Finder, we’re now combing through the flotsam for the next month and change.
Rules for this weekly article:
1) I will not recommend quarterbacks — There are plenty of good ones. You’re on your own there.
2) I will not recommend any running back who costs more than $5,000, wideout who costs more than $4,500, or tight end that costs more than $4,000 in DraftKings’ DFS slate — This was an easy cutoff for what a FLEX really is.
3) I consider any player who garners over 50 yards or scores a victory for the column — anything more you get out of that, well, great for you. Let’s set expectations low because we are combing for outliers.
▶ Running Backs
TreVeyon Henderson, NE — $5,000 — While Las Vegas’ turnaround has been a great story to date, they’re 25th in run defense DVOA. Getting got by Kenneth Walker in Week 4? That’s understandable. Allowing the three lead Saints backs to manage 107 rushing yards? Being the only opponent Omarion Hampton has played well against? Those are less easy to overlook. Henderson has more-or-less stalemated Rhamondre Stevenson into an even time share, and Stevenson opens the week on the injury report. Henderson is the more explosive back and I expect some big gains here.
Woody Marks, HOU — $4,800 — Marks has scored in two straight contests and the Titans are not a completely terrible run defense, leading me to believe the (surprisingly) pass-first Texans might be throwing quite a bit in this one. Those scripts have tended to favor Marks, who has essentially finished the first four weeks in a 55-45 timeshare with David Montgomery.
Keaton Mitchell, LAC — $4,500 — The Broncos have allowed seven passes per game to running backs, tied for fourth-most in the league. That is the Mitchell ticket. Given how rough the offensive line looks (again), I expect screens galore and Mitchell is also carving heavily into the Omarion Hampton workload even without the passes. As a home favorite in some places (lol) as of this typing, the Chargers should find points against the Broncos.
Brian Robinson, ATL — $4,700 — The circumstances that create “running back has run for four touchdowns in two games and is still $4,700" are funny. Yes, it took two blowouts. No, I don’t think the Falcons will blow out the Ravens on Sunday night. However, Lamar Jackson doesn’t look close to playing. And Robinson has touched the ball much more than expected. I think he can punch above this price for another week.
▶ Wide receivers
Keenan Allen, IND — $4,300 — This didn’t work out last week only because Allen popped up with a groin ailment and missed the game. But nothing has really changed about the situation: The Colts are going to have a huge target void to fill, because Josh Downs isn’t getting 15 targets a game. Allen has ably filled it, and he might run into a touchdown along the way with eight fullback-esque targets for 50-or so yards. He did practice on Wednesday, putting him on track to be active for this one. Leading this section of the column with Allen tells you exactly how much confidence I have in these five picks.
Jaylin Noel, HOU — $3,200 — Sometimes it’s just as simple as: This is the most talented secondary receiver the Texans have, the Texans are going to have to throw, and I’m going to ignore the up-and-down trends in playing time and just hope the Texans at 0-4 realize they need to simplify some things. Unless or until a healthy Tank Dell suddenly appears on this roster, Noel is the second-best receiver they have. (If Dell is activated off IR for this game, though, pivot to him, he’s only $3,400 here too.)
Chris Bell, MIA — $3,600 — One of a few Week 4 bagels I’m recommending this week, which says a lot about this field, Bell had a 68-yard touchdown called back due to a penalty I don’t actually agree with. Malik Willis was shackled against the Vikings. I expect things to be a bit more free-flowing against a Bengals defense that has sent opponents into pass-heavy scripts. That puts Bell back on the menu.
Makai Lemon, PHI — $4,400 — Listen, I’m also not thrilled with this recommendation. But if we look at how things have gone for the Jaguars, they’ve allowed a league-high 79.9 passing yards per game to No. 2 wideouts and (also) a league-high 70.7 passing yards per game to No. 3 wideouts per FTN’s DVOA data. The Eagles will probably not throw for under 100 yards again in London. Heck, they might get blown out and just figure they need to see more of what the rookie can do. The numbers suggest there’s some upside here.
Ryan Flournoy, DAL — $3,800 — Did you know: Flournoy has 19 targets in his last three games? The Cowboys have kept him involved, and after CeeDee Lamb’s herculean effort against the Texans on Sunday, I expect him to get a little more rest on Thursday than usual. That means more for George Pickens. It also means more for the ancillary weapons in this passing game, and given how the Cowboys have tended to create high-scoring games, that could mean some Flournoy yards on Thursday.
▶ Tight ends
Michael Mayer, LV — $3,500 — The Patriots have controlled the tight end game pretty well this year, but the Raiders are a different beast because they just don’t use wideouts. Mayer went for 8/82 on 10 targets last week against the Chiefs with only Tre Tucker left from the season-opening three-wide set. Ian Thomas scored a touchdown as well as the third tight end. Mayer should be in line for a nice role here.
Greg Dulcich, MIA — $3.100 — Been a while since we got to tout Dulcich, who completely bageled last week. But the Dolphins attempted only 17 passes in Week 4 against a Brian Flores #RevengeGame, so nobody managed fantasy value. This week? The Bengals have allowed a league-worst 99.8 passing yards per game to tight ends. Brenton Strange just feasted. They’re the team that let Dalton Schultz eat in Week 2. Dulcich should get there for real value in Week 5.
