Kickers are creatures of game script.
In fantasy football that doesn’t make them any different than a lot of running backs and wideouts and tight ends. For those positions, as with kicker, opportunity evaporates with unfriendly game script.
The receiver or tight end sees a dip in routes and targets when their team gets out to a big lead and runs the rock in the second half. The running back ends up with ten carries instead of twenty because his team has to abandon the run as they chase points in a trailing script. In an opportunity-based game, this is something short of ideal.
That’s why we want kickers in our lineups whose teams have a good chance of seeing plenty of neutral or positive game script. Usually this means a team won’t forgo easy field goal opportunities in the second half, down by multiple scores. So there is a process to selecting kickers -- even those off the waiver wire.
In this space I’ll highlight a few waiver kicker options who check the boxes of a viable play. Some, of course, will be better than others. Oh, and one more thing: Accuracy doesn’t really matter at all. We want opportunity.
Week 5 Kicker Options
Below is a look at kicker fantasy production allowed by each team through Week 4, along with a graph showing which coaches are most aggressive and most conservative with their fourth down decision making.
Fantasy points allowed to kickers (courtesy of FFToday)
FFToday.com
RBDM.com
Chris Boswell (PIT) vs. Colts
The Boz (the kids call him the Boz) is in a good spot this week against a Colts team that’s all but incapable of winning by big margins.
The Colts, allowing 3.5 red zone possessions per game through Week 4, have allowed multiple field goal tries in three of their four games. Boz, meanwhile, has three field goal attempts in both Pittsburgh wins this year. The Steelers are 2.5 point favorites headed into Sunday.
Nick Folk (ATL) vs. Ravens
The juggernaut that is the Falcons rush offense and the absence of the oft-injured Lamar Jackson — whose ankle sprain is neither low nor high — puts Folk in play as a legit streaming option for Week 5.
Folk has tried multiple field goals in three of Atlanta’s four games. Against the Saints in Week 4 he had six extra points because the Falcons couldn’t stop scoring touchdowns. So it goes.
With the Falcons entering this one as 3.5-point home favorites with a fine-and-dandy 23.5-point implied total, Folk should at least have a solid floor against a Baltimore defense giving up four red zone possessions per week.
Chad Ryland (ARI) vs. Lions
I know, I know. I introduced this analysis with a call to find kickers who might benefit from neutral and positive script. And yes, I am aware that the Cardinals are somehow 5.5-point underdogs here against Detroit. Does anyone believe Jacoby Brissett and the Arizona offense won’t be able to move the ball against the abominable Detroit defense though?
No. The answer is no.
Having a kicker attached to a high-scoring affair is decent process as long as that game is not projected to be a total blowout. That’s what we have here with a Cards-Lions game featuring a week-high 54.5-point total. Arizona’s implied total, as of this writing, sits at 24.5 points. Only three teams have a higher total in Week 5.
Kicking for a team scoring a touchdown on a fairly low 55 percent of its red zone possession, Ryland is in play. That head coach Mike LaFleur is among the NFL’s most staunchly conservative fourth down decision makers doesn’t hurt Ryland’s cause.
