The Atlanta Falcons head to Lambeau Field desperate for a spark after an 0-2 start, while the Green Bay Packers return home at 1-1 looking to steady an offense suddenly dealing with serious personnel losses. Thursday night also marks Michael Penix Jr.’s first start since his season-ending ACL injury last November, giving Atlanta a higher-upside answer at quarterback after managing only 16 points and converting 6 of 25 third downs through two games.
Green Bay is favored for good reason, but the injuries on both sidelines and Penix’s return make this a more interesting matchup than the early seven-point spread suggested. The line has already fallen as bettors account for Atlanta’s quarterback change.
Falcons vs. Packers Odds
Falcons: +5.5
Packers: -5.5
Over: 43.5
Under: 43.5
Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Falcons vs. Packers Key Injuries
Atlanta gets Penix back, and that alone changes the outlook. The second-year quarterback was a full participant in the Falcons’ estimated Monday practice report and will make his first start since the ACL tear he suffered in Week 11 of the 2025 season. Tua Tagovailoa is out, leaving Penix as Atlanta’s clear starter on the short week.
The Falcons’ biggest concern is in the secondary. Cornerback A.J. Terrell is out with a groin injury after landing on injured reserve, while edge rusher Samson Ebukam remained sidelined with a hamstring issue. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor, running back Brian Robinson Jr. and defensive lineman Brandon Dorlus were listed as questionable, though Taylor and Dorlus showed improvement in practice participation.
Green Bay is also shorthanded. Starting right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele is out for the season with a torn patellar tendon, and wide receiver Jayden Reed is questionable after missing practice with a back injury. The Packers will also be without Josh Jacobs, Micah Parsons and Javon Hargrave. Left guard Aaron Banks is questionable, creating the possibility that Green Bay starts multiple replacements up front.
Falcons vs. Packers Betting Trends
Atlanta’s offensive issues have been glaring. The Falcons produced 238 total yards in Week 1 and 286 in Week 2, then managed only three points in Sunday’s 34-3 loss to Carolina. Their 16 total points rank last in the league, and their 24% third-down conversion rate makes sustained drives difficult.
Green Bay has not exactly been explosive either. The Packers have only 129 rushing yards on 39 carries, a modest 3.3 yards per attempt, and they have yet to score a rushing touchdown. However, Green Bay’s defense has generated seven sacks through two games, which is a major edge against a quarterback making his first NFL start after an ACL recovery.
Article Continues BelowThe total has fallen from 46.5 to 43.5, a reflection of both offenses’ Week 2 struggles and the uncertainty surrounding the Packers’ offensive line and skill group.
Keys to Falcons vs. Packers Matchup
The decisive factor is whether Penix can create explosive plays without exposing Atlanta to Green Bay’s pass rush. He provides more arm talent and downfield aggression than Cooper Rush and Jack Strand who started the first two games, but he faces a difficult first assignment, a road Thursday game at Lambeau after an extended injury absence.
Atlanta needs to stay ahead of the chains with its run game and avoid the third-and-long situations that have defined its 0-2 start. If Penix repeatedly has to throw into obvious passing downs, Green Bay’s seven-sack front can dictate the game.
For the Packers, protecting their own quarterback is just as important. Atlanta’s pass rush is weakened without Ebukam, but Terrell’s absence could leave the Falcons vulnerable to Green Bay’s outside receivers. The Packers do not need a shootout; they need clean possessions, field position and a defense that forces Penix into one or two costly mistakes.
Falcons vs. Packers Prediction and Pick
Penix gives Atlanta enough upside to be more competitive than it was in the first two weeks, and Green Bay’s depleted offensive line keeps this from being an automatic Packers blowout. Still, the Falcons have scored just 16 points all season, are missing their top cornerback and now ask a quarterback returning from ACL surgery to solve a road Thursday-night environment.
The Packers’ defense should create enough pressure to limit Atlanta’s offense, while Green Bay’s home-field advantage and steadier overall roster give it the edge late.
The best pick is Packers -5.5, with the under also appealing at 43.5 given Atlanta’s offensive output and Green Bay’s rushing limitations.
Prediction: Packers 24, Falcons 16.