The Miami Dolphins (1-7) and Indianapolis Colts (2-7) meet Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in a matchup between two teams racing towards the top of the 2027 Draft. The Dolphins have lost two straight and sit in the cellar in the AFC East while the Colts have lost five in a row and have only the Titans between them and a spot in the basement in the AFC South.
The headline as these teams take the field is that Miami’s starting signal-caller, Malik Willis, has been placed on the IR and as a result, rookie Kyle McCord will get the first start of his career. Indianapolis will continue with Daniel Jones, who has 1,722 passing yards and six touchdowns this season. Jones, however, has struggled to regain the form he had prior to tearing his Achilles late last season.
Miami’s latest setback was a 19-9 home loss to the Detroit Lions, a game in which the Dolphins’ defense did enough to give the offense a chance but Miami never reached the end zone. Willis completed just 13 of 25 passes for 128 yards with an interception, while Ollie Gordon II led the Dolphins with 55 rushing yards and Caleb Douglas caught six passes for 70 yards. Miami finished with only 228 total yards, went 0-for-3 in the red zone and settled for three Zane Gonzalez field goals.
Indianapolis’ last loss was considerably more painful. The Colts rallied from a 17-7 halftime deficit against Dallas, getting a 55-yard touchdown catch from Ashton Dulin and field goals of 59 and 50 yards from Spencer Shrader to take a 23-20 lead with 1:37 remaining. But Dak Prescott immediately hit Ryan Flournoy for 46 yards, and Javonte Williams scored from a yard out with 1:08 left to give Dallas a 27-23 victory. Jones finished 20-of-34 for 180 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Jonathan Taylor managed only 46 yards on 13 carries and lost a costly fourth-quarter fumble. Dallas piled up 508 yards to Indianapolis’ 271, illustrating the biggest concern for a Colts’ team that is allowing 361.8 yards and 27.7 points per game.
The central storyline, then, is which struggling offense can take advantage of an accommodating opponent. Miami is averaging only 15.8 points per game, 31st in the league, and will be asking McCord to make his debut on the road; Indianapolis averages 20.4 points but carries a -11 turnover differential, making ball security especially important for Jones and Taylor.
Recent history favors the Colts. Indianapolis has won the last three meetings, including a 33-8 rout at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 1 of the 2025 season, when Jones completed 22 of 29 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown and Taylor rushed for 71 yards. The broader history belongs to the Dolphins, who hold a 48-30 advantage across 78 regular-season and postseason meetings.
Let’s dive further into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Dolphins vs. Colts
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Latest Game Odds: Dolphins vs. Colts
The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:
This line has shifted dramatically towards the Dolphins since the Trade Deadline earlier this week. After opening as a 6.5-point favorite, the Indy is now favored by just 3.5 points. The Total has plummeted after opening at 47.5.
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Expert Picks & Predictions: Dolphins vs. Colts
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Dolphins and the Colts:
Here’s why Daniel Jones OVER 0.5 Interceptions is our best bet:
Jones has thrown an interception in 88.89% of his nine games at 1.11 per game, and the home split is 100% across four games at 1.25. The projection sits at 0.84. Ten picks in nine games on the season, and he’s now throwing to a receiving corps that lost 73 catches on Tuesday. That’s a receiver room that hasn’t had time to build chemistry with him, and Miami’s defense has pulled in four interceptions on the year. At -125 you’re only being asked for a 55.6% implied probability against an 88.89% season hit rate.
Daniel Jones OVER 19.5 Completions:
Even with WRs Allen and Downs gone, the volume doesn’t disappear — Jones is averaging 33.78 pass attempts per game (13th) and projects at 29.06 attempts for this one. The dump-down and underneath targets now funnel toward Ashton Dulin, who is set to absorb the vacated snaps, and Anthony Gould, who steps into the vacated slot role. Against a Miami defense allowing a 76.02% completion rate, 19.5 completions is a low bar.
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