Bears vs. Patriots Thursday Night Football Week 7 Betting Picks

The Chicago Bears will host the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football in Week 7.

The Patriots are currently second in the AFC East with a 3-2 record. The Bears are tied with the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in the NFC North with a 3-2 record.

There are two major factors benefiting Chicago in this game. First, where the game is being played. Second, injuries.

The Bears have looked outstanding at home, where they boast an +8.3 average scoring margin per game this season. More importantly, the Patriots have struggled on the road. They own a ridiculous +17.3 average scoring margin at home, but it drops to -9.7 on the road.

New England ranks fifth in the NFL in points per play (0.487) at home this season, but they rank last in the same category (0.225) on the road. Similarly, they’re second in the league in points allowed per play (0.212) at home compared to 27th (0.457) on the road.

Patriots vs. Bears TNF Bet Picks

Chicago’s struggled defensively throughout the season, but that’s because the lows have been so low, and they’ve happened on the road. Overall, they’re allowing the third-fewest points per play (0.215) at home this season. They haven’t allowed more than 12 points in any of their three home games.

I’m not as concerned about the Bears’ offense with Caleb Williams back in the starting lineup. He’s posted 59 and 31 points in his only two full games this season, and I’m not going to knock him for playing in terrible conditions against the Vikings.

The Bears certainly have a few concerning injury issues, including T.J. Edwards and Kyle Monangai, but the bigger issue is with New England.

Romeo Doubs was placed on injured reserve on Monday, while Harold Landry is still out. Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker haven’t participated in practice yet this week, while Morgan Moses, A.J. Brown, and Carlton Davis have all been limited.

The Patriots own a huge road win over the Buffalo Bills this season, but they’ve also lost to the Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars. Granted, they aren’t bad losses, but I expect their road woes to continue against a team that has been drastically better at home early in 2026.

Where to Bet: Chicago Bears -2.5 spread | -125

2026 NFL Season Betting Record: 6-12