UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 continues on the main card with a five-round, non-title lightweight fight between Arman Tsarukyan and Mauricio Ruffy. Check out our UFC 331 odds series for our Tsarukyan-Ruffy prediction and pick.

Arman Tsarukyan (23-3) remains one of lightweight’s elite contenders, riding a five-fight UFC win streak. He most recently submitted Dan Hooker with a second-round arm-triangle in November 2025 after edging Charles Oliveira by split decision at UFC 300, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Mauricio Ruffy.

Mauricio Ruffy (14-2) enters UFC 331 on a two-fight stoppage streak, most recently flattening Michael Chandler with a spinning-wheel-kick-and-punches TKO in June. That followed a second-round TKO of Rafael Fiziev in January, showcasing his elite creativity and power as he comes into his fight this weekend against Arman Tsarukyan.

UFC 331 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.

UFC 331 Odds: Arman Tsarukyan-Mauricio Ruffy

Arman Tsarukyan: -340

Mauricio Ruffy: +270

Over 3.5 rounds: +154

Under 3.5 rounds: -200

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Why Arman Tsarukyan Will Win

Arman Tsarukyan has the clearest wrestling advantage in this matchup, averaging 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes while Ruffy has not recorded a UFC takedown. That gives Tsarukyan a dependable way to take the Brazilian away from his most dangerous weapon: creative, open-space striking.

Ruffy’s 86% takedown defense is impressive, but it has not been tested by a chain wrestler with Tsarukyan’s athleticism, timing, and ability to re-attack. Arman can pressure with boxing, change levels repeatedly, and make Ruffy defend against the cage until the takedowns begin to accumulate.

Tsarukyan also carries the far deeper résumé, with 26 professional fights and a five-fight UFC winning streak against elite lightweights. His average fight time of 12:16 shows he is comfortable in prolonged, hard fights, whereas Ruffy averages 8:21 and has built much of his success through early finishes.

On the feet, Tsarukyan is not simply surviving. He absorbs only 1.80 significant strikes per minute compared with Ruffy’s 3.83, giving him a defensive buffer during the inevitable moments when the fight remains at range.

If Arman stays patient, refuses reckless kickboxing exchanges, and commits to sustained wrestling, he can control position, drain Ruffy’s explosiveness, and earn a decision or late ground-and-pound stoppage.

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Why Mauricio Ruffy Will Win

Mauricio Ruffy owns a meaningful size advantage, standing 5-foot-11 with a 75-inch reach against Tsarukyan’s 5-foot-7 frame and 72.5-inch reach. That four-inch height and 2.5-inch reach gap can make Arman’s level changes more predictable, giving Ruffy extra space to jab, kick, and punish entries.

Ruffy’s power is the great equalizer. Thirteen of his 14 professional wins have come by knockout, including recent stoppages of Rafael Fiziev and Michael Chandler, so he has already proven he can hurt and finish elite lightweight competition.

His takedown defense will determine the upset. Ruffy has stopped 85–86% of UFC takedown attempts, and if he can force Tsarukyan to repeatedly reset after failed shots, the wrestler may grow desperate and increasingly available for knees, uppercuts, and counter hooks.

Ruffy is also the more efficient pure striker, landing four significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy with nearly 60% defense. Tsarukyan is technically sound, but he cannot afford to absorb clean shots while attempting to cross the distance against an opponent with Ruffy’s finishing instincts.

The Brazilian’s path is narrow but very real: defend the first few takedowns, own the center, and force a kickboxing fight. If he keeps it standing, Ruffy’s length, accuracy, and spectacular one-shot power give him a strong chance to shock the favorite with a knockout.

Final Arman Tsarukyan-Mauricio Ruffy Prediction & Pick

Arman Tsarukyan should be favored in this five-round lightweight co-main event because he has the more dependable paths to victory. Ruffy is the more dangerous pure striker, but Tsarukyan’s pressure wrestling, cage control, and experience in longer fights should steadily shrink the Brazilian’s space.

The opening round will be the danger zone for Tsarukyan. Ruffy’s 75-inch reach, 86% takedown defense, and 13 knockout wins make every level change risky, especially if Arman shoots from too far outside.

Still, Tsarukyan’s chain wrestling should make the difference over 25 minutes. He can use feints and short boxing to get Ruffy backing up, then build control time with repeated takedown attempts rather than relying on one clean entry.

The pick is Tsarukyan by unanimous decision, surviving early danger before wearing down Ruffy through clinch pressure, top control, and increasingly safe striking.

Final Arman Tsarukyan-Mauricio Ruffy Prediction & Pick: Arman Tsarukyan (-340), OVER 3.5 Rounds (+154)