College basketball has never been more of a year-to-year sport than it is right now. The days of recruiting a high school player and slowly developing them over four years aren’t completely over, but they sure do feel like a relic of the past. In the NIL and transfer portal era, teams are trying to identify two or three players to retain as part of the core, then going to the portal to fill out the rest of the roster.

In some ways, there’s more continuity in men’s college hoops right now than there has been since the pre- one-and-done days. Players like UConn’s Braylon Mullins, Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas, and Florida’s Thomas Haugh all would have been first-round 2026 NBA draft picks if they weren’t lured back to school by millions in NIL money. Retention is just one part of the team-building puzzle at this point, because if teams really want to take a leap, they better crush the portal and pick out the right incoming freshmen.

There are already some teams poised to be way better than last season entering the new year, and a few who are clearly going to take a step back. Let’s look at the risers and fallers entering the 2026-27 men’s college basketball season.

The Hurricanes went from a 7-win team to a 26-win team in head coach Jai Lucas’ first season, and now they’re ready to take another step. Shelton Henderson returns for his sophomore season as a bruising two-way guard who is a jump shot away from being one of the better players in the sport. He’ll have a ton of talent around him. Acaden Lewis transfers in from Villanova for his sophomore season to be a true table-setting point guard. Somto Cyril enters from Georgia with a crazy combination of length (7’7 wingspan) and strength for a big man, and he could dominate the rim at both ends. Incoming McDonald’s All-American Caleb Gaskins has a great frame for a four and should excel at doing the dirty work from day one. Dante Allen is another key returner and should be primed for a big sophomore season as a guard who plays hard on both ends and just needs to improve his outside shot. DeSean Goode and Nick Dorn will likely solid bench additions, too. The ‘Canes will be a factor in the ACC.

I’m tempted to call this the most talented team of Sean Miller’s career. Big man Matas Vokietaitis returns after a breakout NCAA tournament run and should be one of the better centers in the sport. Miller surrounded him with impact players at every position in the transfer portal, and I really think it gives Texas Final Four upside. David Punch comes over from TCU as a skilled interior scorer who will add toughness defensively and on the glass. Colorado transfer Isaiah Johnson should be the engine of the offense as a skilled slashing guard who can also hit threes. Elyjah Freeman is a long swingman who will help this team get up and down in transition. Mikey Lewis comes over from Gonzaga to add outside shooting volume and additional scoring punch, while Amari Evans puts his huge frame for a guard to use defensively. I’m super high on incoming freshman combo guard Austin Goosby, who looks like a potential lottery pick. Add in top recruit Marcus Spears, an athletic forward who needs to spend two years in college because he’s only 17 years old, and Texas is absolutely loaded. The Longhorns made a surprising run to the Sweet 16 after being a bubble team last season, but they won’t sneak up on anyone this year.

Eric Musselman missed the NCAA tournament in his first two seasons at USC, and he did everything he could this offseason to ensure it doesn’t happen again. Let’s start with the return of Rodney Rice, who should be one of the best scoring guards in college hoops this year. Jacob Cofie also returns for his junior year as a two bouncy 6’10 forward who makes a positive impact on both ends of the floor. Alijah Arenas should be fully healthy for his sophomore year, and he can be one of the best microwave scorers in the Big Ten if he reels in his worst tendencies on the court. UConn transfer Eric Reibe feels like the player who can take this team to the next level as a big rim-protecting center, but he’s currently recovering from foot surgery. The freshman class is loaded with five-stars Christian Collins, Adonis Ratliff, and Darius Ratliff (Theo’s twin sons), and I like that they should all be in more complementary roles to start their college careers. The Big Ten is very good, but USC should be firmly in the mix for an at-large bid with real tournament upside.

Dennis Gates made the NCAA tournament in each of the last two seasons at Mizzou, but he’s still looking for his first March Madness win. This team should be good enough to get it done. Incoming five-star freshman Jason Crowe Jr. has the chance to be one of the country’s most electric scoring guards. His shot selection will be frustrating and he probably won’t defend much, but Crowe’s ability to pull-up from anywhere and keep the ball on a string as a handler should open up everything else for the rest of the Tigers. Providence transfer Jamier Jones should be a nice complement to Crowe as a powerful downhill driver who can get to the foul line and guard up positionally. Jaylen Carey adds a defensive enforcer inside who can also pound the offensive glass, while Bryson Tiller adds some face-up scoring versatility to the front court. They could have Mark Mitchell back too, though I really have no idea what’s going to happen with any of the temporary restraining order players. If not, incoming McDonald’s All-American Toni Bryant will be another big, athletic body in the front court to help soak up minutes. Crowe needs to deliver on his promise for the Tigers to take a step forward, but I like the toughness of this team around him if that happens.

Marquette was dreadful last season at 12-20, but it felt like a necessary rebuilding year after losing so much talent to the NBA in recent years. The Golden Eagles should roar back to form this season, led by the return of sophomore guard Nigel James Jr. James is an explosive downhill driver and craft finisher who doubles as one of the better assist men in college hoops. Is it crazy to think he could be an All-American this year? Marquette added a talented big man next to him in the portal with the addition of Louisville’s Sananda Fru, a gifted rim protector and offensive rebounder with great hands who should add both scoring and playmaking to the offense. Rising junior Royce Parham is a strong, versatile defender who feels like the perfect glue guy for this team. Demarius Owens is the guy who can take this team to the next level as a super athletic forward who needs to refine his offensive skill set. I love the defensive versatility of this team around the James-Fru battery, and it should help Marquette win a lot of games.

DePaul hasn’t made the tournament since 2004, and while I wouldn’t bet it happens this season, I do think there’s a chance this is the Blue Demons’ first 20-win season since 2007. Head coach Chris Holtmann finally has this program trending in the right direction, and he just landed a really talented transfer portal class that gives DePaul a real chance to compete in the middle of the pack of the Big East. DePaul somehow beat out Kentucky for Magoon Gwath, a talented 7-footer from San Diego State, who adds rim protection and an improved three-point shot for potential five-out spacing. Kahmare Holmes comes over from Wofford as a long, physical guard with fantastic burst as a driver, and he should be this team’s leading scorer. Ade Popoola should be a plug-and-play 3-and-D guy on the wing, and Layden Blocker returns as a super quick lead guard. The Big East is going to be tough, but for once DePaul won’t be a pushover.

Okay, this one is too easy. Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson, and Aday Mara were always bound to be lottery picks, but losing head coach Dusty May is the real surprise, and one that stings the most. Michigan should still be pretty good with Trey McKenney poised for a breakout sophomore year and Elliot Cadeau back as one of the country’s best lead guards. I’m not predicting that the Wolverines are going to suck — they should be comfortably in the tournament field — but last year’s team was truly an all-timer, while this one will be merely solid.

Iowa enjoyed a charm season in head coach Ben McCollum’s debut, and I already feel scared betting against one of the best coaches in the country. The Hawkeyes just lost so much talent, including do-everything point guard Bennett Stirtz to the NBA and top co-star Alvaro Folgueiras to Louisville. McCollum’s program obviously sells itself at this point, and he did well in the portal to bring back some pieces who should keep this team afloat. I like Ty’Reek Coleman coming in from Illinois State to add a speedier complement in the backcourt as Stirtz’s replacement. Andrew McKeever is a giant inside coming over from St. Mary’s who should give Iowa some real rim protection. There are a lot of good returners back too, including top shooter Cooper Koch and Tate Sage. I would bet Iowa roars back a year from now, but I’m expecting a step back this season even if they’re still a tournament team.