One of the NFL's most heated rivalries renews in Week 5 when the San Francisco 49ers make the trip up north to take on the Seattle Seahawks. These two NFC West rivals have played a number of very important games over the last few seasons, including two at the very end of last season, and this one has major implications as well.
The 49ers come into this game on fire, one of just three teams in the NFL to get off to a 4-0 start. On the other side, the Seahawks' defense has dominated for most of the season. Mike Macdonald and Seattle are off to a 3-1 start and are looking to move into first place in the division.
On top of that, the 49ers and Seahawks have been widely talked about as the two best teams in the NFC so far this season while the Los Angeles Rams have struggled with both injuries and some inconsistency. The winner of this game will officially move into that top spot in the national spotlight for the time being.
In both of these meetings late last season — a 13-3 Seahawks win to decide the NFC's No. 1 seed in Week 18 and a 41-6 drubbing in Seattle in the Divisional Round — Macdonald and the Seahawks defense suffocated Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers offense.
Let's get into why that happened and what San Francisco needs to do to flip the script this time.
Nick Emmanwori is Seattle's secret to stopping the 49ers
When the 49ers beat the Seahawks in Week 1 of last season, Nick Emmanwori played just four snaps on defense. Late in the season, he became the secret weapon that unlocked the best version of Macdonald's defense, and the Seahawks rode that all the way to a Super Bowl.
Emmanwori is listed at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds and is also one of the fastest, most athletic players on the field. The Seahawks use him as a blitzer, a cover guy, and a reliable option in the run fit. But his combination of his size and strength allows Macdonald to keep the Seahawks in sub packages no matter the opponent or the personnel on the other side.
Kyle Shanahan is still the best offensive play-caller and play-sequencer in football. His superpower is dictating the terms of the game to a defense. Shanahan forces you to play the game his way, and then he hits you where it hurts in the biggest moments of the game. Last season, the Seahawks were able to neutralize that by keeping Emmanwori on the field in nickel and still being able to stifle the 49ers' running game.
In Week 18 last season, the Seahawks didn't play base personnel one time in 42 snaps. Macdonald's group played 31 snaps of nickel and 11 of dime. The 49ers are usually able to batter teams on the ground in those situations due to tight end George Kittle's superpower as a blocker, but that wasn't the case against the Seahawks. San Francisco ran the ball 12 times for 53 yards, good for -0.13 EPA per rush and a success rate just above 41%.
While Brock Purdy is the best quarterback that Kyle Shanahan has had since Matt Ryan back in Atlanta and is a legitimate MVP candidate this season, the 49ers offense has always taken a step back when it is forced into obvious passion situations where Shanahan's misdirection and play-action game have less of an impact.
Purdy struggled in that Week 18 game, finishing 19-of-27 with 127 yards and an interception, and the lack of success running the ball was a big factor in that.
Those numbers continued to follow the same trend in the Divisional Round. The Seahawks played sub personnel on 50 out of the 49ers' 60 offensive snaps. On those 60 plays, the 49ers averaged less than four yards per play and finished with a -0.54 EPA per play.
Emmanwori's ability to play every down as the nickel without giving up Seattle's ability to dominate in the box is the catalyst for that, and it will be a theme once again on Sunday.
What has changed for the 49ers to have an edge?
It's a lot to ask, but Purdy being unlocked and taking a step up from where he was a year ago is the easiest path to the 49ers making some inroads on this Seahawks defense. Macdonald and company, despite dealing with a ton of injuries in the secondary early in the season, still rank in the top five in just about every stat both in the running game and the passing game so far this year.
Of course, the easiest way to avoid those obvious passing downs is to run the ball better, but that's going to be a tall task. The Seahawks are allowing -0.19 EPA per rush so far this season despite playing with eight guys in the box only 7% of the time. The 49ers run game has been solid, ranking sixth in both EPA per rush and success rate, but it's hard to expect that to keep up against Seattle on Sunday.
Leonard Williams, who missed Thursday's practice with an ankle injury, not being able to go would help San Francisco run the ball better in this one. But the 49ers will be without fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who suffered a knee injury against the Denver Broncos in Week 4.
Purdy has been what has looked different about this 49ers offense so far this season. Of course, having Mike Evans on the outside to win some one-on-one balls helps, as does reinserting the Deebo Samuel gadget play bag into the Shanahan offense. George Kittle also miraculously looks like his old self after tearing his Achilles in January. But Purdy has taken another step, and that is why this has been the best offense in the NFL so far this season.
Purdy has always been Shanahan's best quarterback when it comes to creating out of structure, and he is doing that once again this year. But his ability to also now play on time and conduct the operation that Shanahan calls has made this passing attack nearly unstoppable.
So far this season, he is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns (11) and is blowing the competition out of the water when it comes to efficiency. His +0.53 EPA per dropback is almost double Lamar Jackson in second place. Whether he can keep that level of efficiency up on Sunday could be the difference between a win and a loss.