2026 way-too-early College Football hot seat rankings: Dabo Swinney is running out of time

In the 2025 season, two coaches were fired after Week 3 of the college football season.  Virginia Tech dismissed Brent Pry after a 0-3 start and a 16-24 record overall. The same day, DeShaun Foster was let go by UCLA after a 0-3 start. Before the end of September, Mike Gundy was let go by Oklahoma State and Sam Pittman was fired by Arkansas.

The four firings in September were a rarity, but could be part of a changing landscape in college football, with NIL and player retention pressures, plus the demand to make the College Football Playoff. The four firings were also a sign of things to come. October 12 saw three more coaches get shown the door, including James Franklin at Penn State. Before the end of the month, another three would be gone. Overall, 12 coaches were dismissed before the end of the regular season. With boosters and those funding NIL operations, the pressure on coaches is growing, and these could be the next coaches shown the door.

1. Mike Norvell (Florida State) 

No one is in more trouble than Mike Norvell. After a successful stint at Memphis, Norvell was named the head coach at Florida State going into the 2020 season. After a 3-6 season in 2020 and a 5-7 season in 2021, Norvell had the Seminoles moving in the right direction. In 2022, the team went 10-2, and then won the ACC Championship in 2023. Despite being 13-0, the team was left out of the College Football Playoff due to their starting quarterback being injured. They would lose the Orange Bowl, and since then it's been a disaster. FSU is just 8-19 since the Orange Bowl loss. Florida State just fired athletic director Michael Alford. Already sitting at 1-1 this year, a blowout loss to Alabama could be the final straw that sends Mike Norvell to the unemployment line.

2. Greg Schiano (Rutgers)

When Oklahoma State fired Mike Gundy last season, it showed that even coaches who have built up over a decade of goodwill with the fanbase and boosters can outstay their welcome. Greg Schiano fits this mold perfectly. From 1959 through 2000, Rutgers spent just four weeks ranked in the AP Top 25. All four of those weeks came in the 1976 season. Schiano took over in 2001 and slowly began the turnaround. In 2005, Rutgers made their first bowl game since 1978, and the next year went 11-2, won the Texas Bowl, and finished ranked 12th. Overall, Schiano led Rutgers to six bowls in his last seven seasons before taking the job with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In the next eight seasons, Rutgers would finish above .500 just twice, and in 2020, the university brought back Schiano. In 2023 and 2024, he led Rutgers to back-to-back 7-6 years and two bowls. Then, the team took a step back in 2025, finishing 5-7. Athletic director Keli Zinn, who was hired in the summer of 2025, made clear that she expects improvement.

“That is, in its simplest form, is to improve what we saw from last year,” she said.

A 0-2 start is not improvement, especially with the first loss being by 16 points to UMass, who had not won a game since 2024, and had not defeated an FBS opponent since 2023. Rutgers now has a nine-game Big Ten schedule to contend with, and would need to win five of them, plus defeat FCS Howard, to improve on 2025. With USC coming to New Jersey this week, a loss would send Rutgers to 0-3 and could seal the fate of Schiano.

3. Dabo Swinney (Clemson)

Clemson was once dominant under Dabo Swinney. From 2015 through 2020, Clemson made the playoffs all six seasons and won the national championships twice. Since then, Clemson has made the playoffs just once, and there has been a slow regression. Last year, Swinney and the Tigers finished 7-6 and were not competitive in the ACC.

Swinney has been ripped for roster construction, and the lack of talent has shown this year. Clemson opened the season with a 51-10 loss to LSU. Clemson should have been able to have a rebound game against Georgia Southern, but continued to struggle. They scored just one touchdown and escaped with a 22-7 win despite being 20.5-point favorites. Now, Clemson is also having to make a change at quarterback due to an injury to Christopher Vizzina. They will be starting true freshman Tait Reynolds.

After two disappointing games, the boosters are also getting restless, according to Will Vandevort of The Clemson Insider.

“I like Coach Swinney. He is a good man, and he has done a lot for Clemson, but he needs to adjust,” one donor said. “I do not want to see him go, but if things do not change, then he needs to go.”

Clemson hosts North Carolina on Saturday. A loss to UNC could start a spiral, and in an effort to avoid a continued spiral, Dabo could be shown the door.

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4. Jamey Chadwell (Liberty)

Jamey Chadwell started his tenure at Liberty strong. After taking over for Hugh Freeze for the 2023 season, Chadwell led Liberty to a 13-0 start with a Conference USA title. They would go to the Fiesta Bowl, where Liberty lost. The next season, the expectation was that Liberty could contend for a spot in the new 12-team format of the College Football Playoff. After a 5-0 start to the season, Liberty lost to Kennesaw State. It was the first-ever win for Kennesaw State at the FBS level, and it has led to a collapse for Liberty. Since then, Liberty is just 8-12. They finished the 2024 season 4-8 and lost in overtime in each of their last three games.

This year, it was a tight loss to James Madison to open the season. Liberty could have won, but discipline cost them after having 12 penalties for 82 yards in the game. Then Liberty entered last week as a four-touchdown favorite against FCS Gardner-Webb. Liberty scored a touchdown on a 54-yard pass from Jaylen Henderson with 2:34 left in the game. That allowed Liberty to escape with a 24-23 victory.

Liberty was expected to contend for the C-USA title and a possible playoff spot. Now, they are just hoping not to collapse. They face off against Ball State this upcoming week before a visit to Coastal Carolina on a short week.

5. Dave Aranda (Baylor) 

Dave Aranda took over as the head coach of Baylor in 2020. After a 2-7 first year, he led them to a 12-2 record with a win in the Sugar Bowl in 2021. They then regressed to 6-7 and then 3-9 before rebounding to 8-5 in 2024. That 8-5 season looked like a blip on the radar, though, as Baylor finished 5-7 and tied for 11th in the Big 12 in 2025. One of the major issues has been the defense. Aranda was brought in for his defensive acumen. From 2012 through 2019, coaching at Utah State, Wisconsin, and LSU, he had four top-ten defenses and never ranked worse than 32nd in total defense.

Baylor has regressed on defense. They ranked 28th in 2020 and were tenth in scoring defense in 2021. They have been outside the top 60 in scoring defense since then. Meanwhile, Baylor is 1-1 this year. After scoring a late touchdown against Auburn, Aranda decided to go for two and the win, instead of tying the game and playing overtime. The 2-point attempt failed, and the call has been questioned. While Baylor beat Prairie View this past week, struggling in upcoming weeks could end his tenure at Baylor.

6. Bill Belichick (North Carolina) 

Bill Belichick went 4-8 in 2025 in his first year as the head coach of North Carolina football. He has labeled the program the “33rd NFL team.” The on-field performance placed him on the hot seat following the 2025 season. Then, North Carolina opened the season with a 15-10 win over TCU in Ireland and then a win over East Tennessee State. Despite being 2-0, the seat has not cooled under Belichick.

The major reason is off-field issues currently. North Carolina GM Michael Lombardi recently resigned while being under investigation. Meanwhile, Steve Belichick is also under investigation while on medical leave. North Carolina was also recently punished for recruiting violations. Unless the investigations get cleared up, a bad season could be the perfect excuse to move on from Belichick.

Coaches to keep an eye on: Luke Fickell (Wisconsin), Jay Sawvel (Wyoming), P.J. Fleck (Minnesota)