Week 10 started with a thriller on Thursday Night Football between the Commanders and Giants! After favorites wrecked Week 9, the underdogs got out to an early win. I have three early picks for primetime games in Germany, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. Best of luck and enjoy the weekend! Game odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
Lions (-2.5) vs Patriots: O/U 51.5
The Lions and Patriots will meet in Munich, Germany, with a potential shootout on our hands. Last week, Green Bay torched New England’s secondary for almost 400 passing yards, and the Patriots face Detroit, which hasn’t had to throw the last two games.
Jared Goff has thrown 25 pass attempts in each of his past two games against the Dolphins and Vikings and gone under 200 yards. Goff hasn’t gone under 200 passing yards in back-to-back games since 2024. Before the previous two games, Goff threw at least 30 passes in six straight and 38 or more in three. This is a spot where I think he clears 30 and could approach 40 pass attempts. The Patriots run the second-most man coverage (28.5%), and that opens the door for this Lions offense.
Detroit scored 31 on the Jets, and Goff went 25-of-32 for 269 yards and two touchdowns; and that’s important because that’s the only game that Goff has faced against a team ranked top 10 in man coverage rate. The Patriots are obviously a step up from the Jets defensively, and after the New England secondary was trashed by Jordan Love, Christian Watson, and Matthew Golden last week, this prop just seems that much better. I like Goff Over 34.5 pass attempts up to 35.5. The only quarterback who’s gone for 35-plus against New England is Aaron Rodgers (39), but that’s about to change.
Pick: Jared Goff Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (1 unit)
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Steelers at Bengals (-3.5): O/U 49.5
It may be November, but this game will feel like a December or January clash with playoff implications. The Steelers and Bengals are both on four-game winning streaks, and the winner will be in first place in the AFC North. The spread and total for this first game were Bengals -3.5 and 42.5, so we have a full seven-point correction on the total for the second game after Pittsburgh won 30-27 in Week 3.
Pittsburgh has been money in years past with Mike Tomlin coming off a bye week (17-5 ML), but this Mike McCarthy’s team now, plus the Bengals, are incredible when at a rest disadvantage. Since 2019 with Zac Taylor, the Bengals are 18-5-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage.
Rather than picking a side, I am going under 24.5 points in the first half. The first-half score was 17-17 in Week 3 and flew over the 20.5 first-half total. There could be a lack of rhythm early coming out of the break for the Steelers, and it’ll be hard for the Bengals to replicate or improve on their 7.1-yard play last week against Atlanta. With the intensity of this game early, I like the first half under 24.5 points. Neither team has played anybody good while lighting it up during their four-game win streaks, so the defenses may surprise us.
Pick: Steelers vs Bengals 1H Under 24.5 (1 unit)
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Chargers at Ravens (-4.5): O/U 38.5
If you were the Chargers and had to pick an opponent, you’d be picking from the Colts, Dolphins, Eagles, and Ravens at this point (LA lost to the Raiders and Cardinals). This is as good of a matchup for the Chargers offense as it gets. Baltimore has allowed 33-plus points in three straight games, and it might not get better with questionable tags to three starting defensive backs.
This is also the Chargers’ first primetime game of the season and first of two or three (Week 15 could get flexed). I think Los Angeles will want this game a little more, and Jim Harbaugh might call up his brother John for any secrets to pull off the win against his former Ravens team.
It doesn’t scare me that Jacoby Brissett will be making his Ravens debut in Baltimore on Monday Night Football, because, like I said, that Ravens’ defense has some serious issues. The Chargers finally found the end zone last week after 37 straight drives without a touchdown, and I think they’ll find it more than once in Baltimore. I like the Chargers to get the first cover of the season (0-7-1 ATS), and I think they can win too. Baltimore is 0-4 ATS at home (worst) and 2-7 ATS this season (third-worst). I will take L.A. +4.5.
Pick: Chargers +4.5 (1 unit)
Week 10 Picks
1 unit: Jared Goff Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-120)
1 unit: Steelers vs Bengals 1H Under 24.5 (-122)
1 unit: Chargers +4.5 (-110)
Season Record: 64-56-1 (58.1%) +2.90 units
Weeks 1-6: 29-42 (40.8%) -15.95 units
Weeks 7-9: 34-14 (70.8%) +19 units
Week 10: 1-1 (50%) -0.15 units
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