If you’re one of those people who believes that there’s no rhyme or reason to fantasy football defense scoring, and it’s all a matter of luck, then Week 4 was for you.
Yes, the Vikings and Seahawks finished inside the top five, and I (and most everybody else) had them as the top two defenses. Yet, the New York Giants finished as the number one defense thanks to one play - the final play of the game. With Arizona taking the snap with the chance to take the lead on the final play of the game, Jacoby Brissett threw an interception in the end zone. That secured a win for the Giants, yet Deonte Banks took the pass down the sideline and brought it back 100 yards for a touchdown. That was an eight-point play for the Giants on the final play of the game, and it took their defense from six points (11th-best finish on the day) to 14 points and the top score. We also saw the Colts give up an 87-yard touchdown that was brought back on a questionable call, and that would have taken them out of the top 10 defenses as well. Even after the Commanders were forced to play their third-string quarterback.
We also had injuries to Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, Jadarian Price, and Rashee Rice, which drastically impacted offensive production and defensive points. All of that is par for the course when you rank defenses; there will simply always be some volatility. We just try and set ourselves up to make the best decisions possible.
In that respect, the Browns were a top 10 defense for me and finished 3rd on the week. I also had the Jaguars and Bears inside the top 10, and they finished tied for eighth, while the Steelers snuck in at 10th overall, so it wasn’t a terrible week for streaming defense picks.
As a reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
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Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2026 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 4: 6-4
SEASON TOTAL: 20-20 (50% hit rate)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” Yet, when I did a deep dive this offseason, I discovered that the stats most commonly connected to top 10 fantasy defenses were first downs allowed, points per game allowed, and third-down conversion rate allowed. So even though I love defenses who get pressure, defenses who can also get off the field quickly tend to be the best fantasy defenses. Perhaps this isn’t a shock, but maybe we’re not really paying attention to the relevant stats when predicting fantasy defensive performance.
The next four most predictive defensive stats were pressure rate, passes defended, turnover rate, and explosive play rate allowed (plays over 20+ yards). With that in mind, I decided to update my Best Overall Defense (BOD) formula to include just these seven stats. I doubled the weight of the first three stats, which are more predictive, and have a single weight for the other four stats. I also incorporate Vegas’ implied team total in the algorithm every week, and when we get opponent stats, I will include fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses as part of the equation since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points.
I’ll obviously have to make adjustments to the algorithm each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
The Eagles are severely banged up here, and Vegas has them projected for just 18 points. As of now, we don’t expect DeVonta Smith or Saquon Barkley to play, and Dallas Goedert is already out. We’ve also had reports that Lane Johnson might retire, and that’s on top of other offensive line injuries to Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson. The Jaguars are 1st in the NFL in turnover rate, 2nd in points per game allowed, and are currently the second-ranked fantasy defense. If the Eagles get lots of good news on Barkley or Smith, this ranking will likely change a bit, but, as of now, I feel pretty good about the Jaguars this weekend.
It’s hard to put the Vikings anything other than first right now, regardless of who they’re playing, but I’m going to have to do it. Still, we can’t move the Vikings down too far. Minnesota is 1st in the league in points allowed per game (12.8 per), third-down defense (22.6%), and pressure rate (45.5%). They also allow the fewest first downs per game (13.75), which makes them an incredibly well-rounded defense. Dallas Turner is turning into a full blown start with another two sacks against the Dolphins. Even though the Saints are a step up from the Dolphins, they have an implied team total of only 20.5 points and will be without running back Travis Etienne, who is on injured reserve. It’s hard to knock the Vikings out of the top spot.
The Bears are in my top 10 again on the strength of a matchup. Green Bay’s offense is in trouble. They are playing without guards Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk, and offensive tackle Zach Bako-Bewele. That’s in addition to being without Jayden Reed and Josh Jacobs. The Packers are projected for just 21.25 points based on Vegas lines. Meanwhile, Chicago is 2nd in the league in third-down conversion rate (23.7%), 2nd in first downs allowed (14.0), 4th in points per game allowed (16.3), and 5th in pressure rate (41.4%). The Bears have averaged 8.0 fantasy points per game, which is 7th among defenses, and I’m expecting another solid showing here.
The Bengals are a touchdown favorite against a Dolphins team with a 17.75-point implied team total. Cincinnati is currently the 5th-ranked defense, averaging 9.0 fantasy points per game, and the addition of Dexter Lawrence has really helped this run defense. They are just 12th in turnover rate and 19th in pressure rate, but they should keep the Dolphins off the scoreboard for much of the game, which means they just need a small handful of sacks or turnovers to put up a solid day. I think Malik Willis will comply.
Is this finally the week that the Texans can deliver? Tennessee is projected for just 16.5 points, which is the lowest on the board for Week 5. Houston’s season numbers are weaker than we expected coming into the year. They rank 25th in turnover rate (6.7%), 26th in points allowed (27.3), and 31st in explosive plays allowed (16.1%). The Texans have averaged only 4.8 fantasy points per game so far, 19th among defenses, so I have more doubt about this ranking than I expected, but they’re a big road favorite against a low-scoring offense, so we’re gonna roll the dice.
There may not be a more beat-up offensive line than the Los Angeles Chargers, and that’s on top of their offense already being a total dumpster fire through four games. In Week 5, the Chargers could be down both starting tackles (Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt), in addition to guards Kayode Awosika and Trey Pipkins. There’s also a chance Ladd McConkey, who aggravated his foot injury in Week 4 and had to leave the game, will simply miss Week 5. All of that is why they’re projected for 20.0 points, but I could see that being lower in a few days. Denver has also been a presumed elite defense that has let us down. They are 11th in pressure rate (38.4%) and have averaged 6.8 fantasy points per game, which is 11th among defenses. The Broncos will be without cornerback Patrick Surtain II for about two weeks, but if McConkey is out, I just don’t see anybody to take advantage of that.
Indianapolis is projected for 20.5 points and will be missing receiver Alec Pierce and potentially Keenan Allen. Pittsburgh’s defense has averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which is 4th among defenses, and is supported by a 4th-ranked turnover rate (15.6%), 8th-ranked third-down conversion rate (34.8%), and 9th-ranked in first downs per game allowed (18.0). The Steelers could be missing both Derrick Harmon and Jamel Dean, which is not great, but they’re still home favorites against a thin Colts passing game.
The Jets have averaged 5.3 fantasy points per game this season, and the Browns have been much more competent on offense than we expected, so I understand why consensus is low. However, some things are working in the Jets’ favor here. The Browns will be without two key offensive linemen in Tevin Jenkins and Elgin Jenkins, and their implied team total is only 18.5 points. The Jets are also 5th in the league in explosive play rate allowed, so even if they don’t get tons of sacks, I don’t expect this to be a high-scoring shootout. The Jets are the 14th-ranked defense on the season, so slipping into the top 10 here doesn’t feel like a major stretch.
Dallas’ defensive numbers are not good. They allow 28.0 points per game, allow a 52.3% third-down conversion rate, and have just a 5.1% turnover rate. In most instances, I would never play them in fantasy. Yet, Tampa Bay has an implied team total of just 19.0 points with Baker Mayfield out, which leaves Jalon Daniels under center. The Packers are the best comparison. They were also a bad defense coming into last week, faced this same Bucs offense, and still scored 8 fantasy points. The Cowboys could put up the same total. They do have their own injury concerns, with DeMarvion Overshown, Cobie Durant, and Jalen Thompson out. That’s the main reason they sit at 11 rather than in the top 10.
Seattle’s underlying numbers are among the best in the league. They are 2nd in explosive plays allowed (6.9%), 3rd in third-down conversion rate (28.6%), 3rd in pressure rate (43.7%), 4th in first downs allowed (16.5), and 5th in points allowed (16.7). San Francisco is projected for 22.5 points, even though they’ll be without Kyle Juszczyk, Demarcus Robinson and De’Zhaun Stribling; they’ve been performing without those guys all season. The 49ers have scored 24 or more in each of their four games, but against the Rams, Dolphins, Cardinals and Broncos, and Seattle is a clear step up from all of them. The Seahawks have averaged 8.8 fantasy points per game, which is 6th among defenses, and Ty Okada is their only defensive injury, so it’s hard for me to rank them outside the top 10.
New England is 6th in points per game allowed (19.3), 7th in first downs allowed per game (17.75), and 7th in explosive play rate allowed (10.9%). That’s a pretty solid defense, but Las Vegas is projected for 21.0 points even if they will be without center Jackson Powers-Johnson and receiver Jalen Nailor. The Patriots have averaged 7.8 fantasy points per game, which is 8th among defenses. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christian Barmore are questionable, but they delivered against a good Bills offense without them. Playing at home also gives them a solid floor, and there’s an argument for the Patriots to be higher.
You could also play the Raiders on the other side of this. Their 19.1% turnover rate is 2nd-best in the league, and their 41.1% pressure rate is 6th-best. They allow 21.0 points a game, which is 12th-best, and New England’s offense is without A.J. Brown, Michael Onwenu, and, most likely, Mack Hollins. Still, the Patriots are projected for 24.25 points, which is the highest total any top-15 defense will face, which makes it hard to put the Raiders much higher than this.
The Browns have been a solid defense this year and were a good call for us last week. Their 40.7% pressure rate is 8th-best in the league, and their 37.0% third-down conversion rate is 13th. The weak spots are first downs allowed and explosive plays allowed, which may not matter too much against the Jets. Even with Breece Hall expected to miss this game, the Jets are projected for 21.5 points. The Browns will also be without Mason Graham, which is a massive injury for them in a solid matchup.
The Giants are projected for 20.25 points behind quarterback Jameis Winston, which makes this a strong home matchup, but this Washington defense is not good. They allow 30.5 points a game and have averaged just 4.3 fantasy points per game. On the plus side, they are11th in first downs allowed per game (18.8) and 17th in pressure rate (35.1%), but all of Nick Cross, Frankie Luvu, and Leo Chenal (on IR) could miss this game, which further dampens their ceiling.
OK, so we’re doing this again. Three weeks in a row we’re going to fade the defense going against the Falcons when consensus keeps ranking them high. Atlanta has looked explosive with Michael Penix Jr. back, and Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson combined for 5 TDs against the Saints. The Ravens come into this game 15th in turnover rate, 16th in pressure rate, and 19th in points allowed. They average 4.8 fantasy points per game, which is 20th in the league, and they were without Trey Hendrickson last week. I just don’t see them as a top 10 defense this weekend.
The Colts are 4th in third-down conversion rate (29.2%), which is nice, but they are also 22nd in points per game allowed (26.0) and 29th in pressure rate (30.7%). They also have a 4.3% turnover rate, which is the worst in the league. That makes their ceiling pretty limited, and Vegas has Pittsburgh projected for 23.0 points, so this is not a matchup we should want to attack.
Denver has not been a great offense this season, but they are projected for 23.0 points, which shows little confidence in the Chargers defense. Safety Derwin James is out for the Chargers, who do have a solid 36.5% third-down conversion rate (11th), 11.5% explosive-play rate allowed (10th), and 14.3% turnover rate (7th). Still, they allow 26.5 points a game, which is 24th, which makes it hard for me to truly trust them in this game.
Defenses ranked this low may be intriguing, but I can’t consider playing them outside of the deepest formats.
This Giants ranking is assuming that Jayden Daniels plays. The Commanders have said that is their plan heading into the week. We also don’t know what’s happening with Terry McLaurin, which could change this ranking. The Giants are allowing 19.8 points per game (8th) and get a good amount of turnovers, so if Daniels winds up not starting this game, they will certainly rise into the next tier. That said, injuries to Brian Burns, Paulson Adebo and Jason Pinnock are not to be ignored, even if the team has been dealing with some of them already.
As of now, I expect Lamar Jackson to play, and Ronnie Stanley returned last week, so it’s hard to get excited about the Falcons defense.
The Rams get a slight blurb with DJ Moore likely out for the Bills, but not enough to rank them higher than this.
As always, I can’t recommend playing any defense that you see here in Tier 5.