Week 1 is in the books, and boy was it a doozy. On Sunday, the games averaged 53.3 points, which made it the highest-scoring Week 1 in NFL history. Of course, itâÂÂs only one week of data, so we donâÂÂt want to overreact, but we also need to keep an eye on this to see if the leagueâÂÂs offensive environment has changed. ItâÂÂs actually true across the board that we donâÂÂt want to overreact to one week of football games, but we also have to adjust our priors and learn from what we see on the field.
Is the Raiders defense good or are the Dolphins bad? Will the Browns offense make every defense look good? Is the Steelers defense back to being elite or is Cooper Rush that bad? Is the Jets defense solid again or are the Titans that bad? Is the Cowboys defense a mess or did John Harbaugh change the Giants? These are all questions weâÂÂre going to need to answer in order to nail these defense rankings, but it might take a few weeks to figure it all out for sure.
As a reminder, what youâÂÂll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my âÂÂeliteâ plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, IâÂÂll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2026 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 1: 4-6
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If youâÂÂve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, âÂÂWho is playing a bad offense?â Yet, when I did a deep dive this offseason, I discovered that the stats most commonly connected to top 10 fantasy defenses were first downs allowed, points per game allowed, and third-down conversion rate allowed. So even though I love defenses who get pressure, defenses who can also get off the field quickly tend to be the best fantasy defenses. Perhaps this isnâÂÂt a shock, but maybe weâÂÂre not really paying attention to the relevant stats when predicting fantasy defensive performance.
The next four most predictive defensive stats were pressure rate, passes defended, turnover rate, and explosive play rate allowed (plays over 20+ yards). With that in mind, I decided to update my Best Overall Defense (BOD) formula to include just these seven stats. I doubled the weight of the first three stats, which are more predictive, and have a single weight for the other four stats. I also incorporate Vegasâ implied team total in the algorithm every week, and when we get opponent stats, I will include fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses as part of the equation since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points.
IâÂÂll obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on âÂÂgut feelâ or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERICâÂÂS PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
I had the Eagles as a tier one defense last week, and they let us down, but, man, the Titans look bad. They got dominated by the Jets, even if the scoreboard made the game appear somewhat close. Cam Ward does not look like heâÂÂs made many strides since last season, and the Titans dropped back to pass in neutral game environments far more than they probably should have. I just donâÂÂt see any way that the Eagles donâÂÂt run away with this one, so their defense feels like a safe play to me.
Maybe itâÂÂs because the 49ers actually handled the time difference better than the Rams, but San Francisco just dominated that game in Australia. I thought the defense looked really good, getting tons of pressure on Matthew Stafford and clamping down on big plays. Now they get a Dolphins offense that looked brutal against the Raiders. Malik Willis did have a rushing touchdown early in the game, but when he was forced to throw from behind in the second half, he held onto the ball far too long and took a few bad sacks. I think the same thing could happen here since I expect the 49ers to get an early lead against a bad Dolphins defense.
The Seahawks also thoroughly dominated their Week 1 matchup against the Patriots, and while I think the Patriots were a bit overrated based on last year, I think this Seahawks defense is good. They also could get safety Nick Emmanwori back this week, which would be a huge boost for them. I know the Cardinals moved the ball well against the Chargers last week, and I do think the Cardinals will be better than I expected, but I still think this offensive line has major question marks, and I think those are going to be exposed more against the Seahawks than they were against the Chargers.
Look, the Bucs defense was not good in Week 1. They allowed 33 points to the Bengals. They allowed a 57% conversion rate on third downs, they barely got any pressure on Joe Burrow, and allowed the third most first downs in the league. However, they didnâÂÂt allow tons of splash plays, and the Bengals offense is playing an entirely different sport than the Browns offense is. They looked brutal with Deshaun Watson under center behind a subpar offensive line. Perhaps weâÂÂre going to regret trusting what could be a mediocre Bucs defense, but, for now, weâÂÂre simply going to keep targeting the Browns with opposing defenses until they force us to do otherwise.
The Patriots werenâÂÂt competitive in their first game against the Seahawks, but their defense was fine. This Steelers offense was also fairly mediocre against the Falcons in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers was 0-for-6 on passes that were deeper than 20 yards down the field. He threaded the needle on some good passes over the middle of the field, but I donâÂÂt think this is an offense thatâÂÂs really going to make big splash plays down the field, especially with Christian Gonzalez likely shadowing DK Metcalf. This ranking is more based on my feeling that this game will be a rock fight, and Rodgers is not mobile enough to avoid the sacks I think are coming.
I know the Saints took the Lions to the wire on Sunday, but I think a lot of that had to do with the Lions taking their foot off the gas. The Lions are also a mediocre defense without their two starting safeties, so this Ravens defense is going to be another level of challenge. In the first half last week, Tyler Shough looked pretty bad. I think the Lions allowed the field to open up a lot in the second half; I donâÂÂt expect the Ravens to do that. The Saints are using Devaughn Vele heavily as their second option in the passing game, and, no disrespect, but I donâÂÂt think thatâÂÂs going to work as well against the Ravens.
Is the Jaguars defense good or are the Browns just that bad? Is the Broncos defense bad or is the Chiefs offense that good? How you answer those questions goes a long way towards how you rank the Jaguars this week. Coming into the season, I thought the Jaguars were a solid but not elite defense, and I thought the Broncos were a solid but not elite offense. On Monday night, the Broncos did not look good. Bo Nix made a bunch of bad decisions, and the playcalling from Davis Webb was questionable at best. I donâÂÂt think this is a great spot for the Jaguars, but I think they may still be able to sneak into the top 10 this week.
I mentioned above that I think the Steelers-Patriots game could be a rock fight. T.J. Watt looked great on Sunday, and the Steelers spent a lot of money to bring in Jamel Dean, Jaquan Brisker, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Asante Samuel Jr. and more. IâÂÂd feel better about the Steelers defense if Joey Porter Jr. was going to be on the field on Sunday, but this is a Patriots offense that looked fairly average without A.J. Brown. TreVeyon Henderson may also not be on the field, and Drake Maye continued his mediocre performance against teams with good records. IâÂÂm not âÂÂoutâ on Maye by any stretch, but I am just not a believer that this is a dynamic Patriots offense.
The Rams are going to be a major story this week because they got no pressure on the quarterback in Week 1 and just put Myles Garrett on the IR with a knee injury. Meanwhile, the Giants outright beat the Cowboys and looked like a far better offense than people suspected. That being said, it was just one week of football. We still think the Rams are going to be a strong defense, even without Garrett, and the Giants have some exciting offensive pieces but a suspect offensive line and a quarterback in Jaxson Dart who will take bad chances. This is going to be a much stiffer test for the Giants offense.
This tier is filled with (potentially) good defenses who had bad Week 1 performances or tough Week 2 matchups. Which means weâÂÂre going to learn a lot about these teams this week.
The Texans defense was lit up by the Bills in Week 1 and now get to face Joe Burrow and the Bengals. I still believe this is a good Texans defense, so IâÂÂm not ready to fully write them off. Same goes for the Broncos, who I think are a better defense than they showed on Monday against the Chiefs. The Jaguars are a tough matchup, so I donâÂÂt love it, but I can see it in deeper formats.
I had to watch the Falcons and Steelers game as my Rotoworld assignment this weekend, and I came away kind of impressed by the Falcons defense. ItâÂÂs just one week, but they were top 10 in the NFL in pressure rate, third-down conversion rate allowed, and first downs allowed. However, this is more about me thinking that the Panthers are just a fine but not great offense. They are already missing two starting offensive linemen, and I think their offense really benefited from playing a bad Bears defense and trailing by a lot for most of the game and just having a lot of garbage time. This is a bit of a gut call, but I like the Falcons this week.
While we donâÂÂt want to overreact to one week of football games, you have to adjust your priors and learn from what we see on the field, and I saw a Chargers team that did not look good and a defense that missed Jesse Minter. I also saw a Raiders team with a healthy Ashton Jeanty, who looked far more dynamic than I thought he would after that ankle injury. I also saw an improved Raiders offensive line. I still donâÂÂt think the Raiders are a great team, but I think they are better than last year and will be able to move the ball against a mediocre Chargers defense. Kirk Cousins did make some bad throws that led to two interceptions, so I can see using the Chargers, which is why I have them 12th, but itâÂÂs not a matchup IâÂÂm going out of my way to target.
The Chiefs defense looked great on Monday night, and perhaps IâÂÂm too low on them here. However, I think this is a solid Colts offense that has a good offensive line and an elite running back in Jonathan Taylor. I just donâÂÂt see this being a matchup where the Chiefs are able to rack up a huge fantasy day, even if this is a low-scoring game and a win for the Chiefs. I just donâÂÂt envision enough sacks and/or turnovers for that kind of defensive performance.
I said before Week 1 that I thought the Jets offense was better than people gave them credit for, and I stand by that. I think the Packers are a better defense than the Titans, but I donâÂÂt think theyâÂÂre an elite defense. I also think the offensive issues without Josh Jacobs are going to keep this game close enough to prevent garbage time sloppiness from the Jets offense. Yes, Geno Smith may throw a pick or take a bad sack or two, but I donâÂÂt envision this being some smash spot for the Packers.
The Panthers and Cardinals are both here because they are facing backup quarterbacks in Cooper Rush and Drew Lock, respectively. That puts them on the deep league radar, but they are not defenses that IâÂÂm really excited to target here because I donâÂÂt think theyâÂÂre actually really strong defenses.
I know the Bengals just had a field day against the Bucs offense, and maybe IâÂÂm ignoring that too much, but I think it was more of a fluke than anything. I also just think the Browns offense will put the defense in many bad positions, which will lead to some short-field touchdowns for the Bucs offense.
The Raiders are another team I think benefited from a weak Week 1 opponent. IâÂÂm not ready to trust their defense against even a slightly above-average offense right now.
As always, I canâÂÂt recommend playing any defense that you see here in Tier 5.
