Week 10 within the NFL wraps up on Monday evening with the Rams rolling out the pink carpet for the Miami Dolphins.
Though the Dolphins are 2-6 with three consecutive losses, Miami is way extra aggressive than the file signifies since beginning quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned from a four-game hiatus on injured reserve with a concussion.
Miami narrowly misplaced twice since Tagovailoa stepped again into the beginning job. The Dolphins dropped a one-point resolution to Arizona and had been additionally overwhelmed by Buffalo by a subject purpose margin.
As for the Rams (4-4), they will look to maintain their playoff hopes alive by extending their successful streak to 4 video games and maintaining their noses up with the remainder of the pack within the NFC West.
Given each groups’ firepower on offense when wholesome, this matchup appears to be like tailored to provide a high-scoring affair.
–Dolphins’ offense energized with Tagovailoa’s return
The Dolphins scored 27 factors in back-to-back video games with Tagovailoa returning to rescue a bunch placing up lower than two touchdowns per recreation with out him. His presence alone tends to have a chilled impact on the offense primarily based on his accuracy and talent to place the ball precisely the place he needs it to go.
Tagovailoa accomplished 69.3 p.c of his passes final season and is as much as 72.7 p.c this season.
The Dolphins usually tend to stay on schedule with Tagovailoa, who has the fifth-highest success charge amongst quarterbacks with a minimal of 140 performs.
If you’re selecting up the required yardage on early downs, you may have extra flexibility along with your playcalling.
Of their final two video games, the Dolphins transformed 65.2 p.c of their third-down alternatives and 6-for-8 in landing conversions contained in the pink zone.
Whereas the offense can typically resemble a sluggish grind, the Dolphins’ effectivity underneath Tagovailoa makes them an actual menace to opposing defenses.
We’re eyeing the over on Tagovailoa completions — set at 21.5 at DraftKings, ESPN Guess and FanDuel — given his high-percentage horizontal route connections with vast receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and the extra menace of working again De’Von Achane.
Tagovailoa was 25 of 28 (89.3 p.c) at Buffalo final week and 28 of 38 in his first recreation again from IR.
–Cross protection a mutual concern
Los Angeles had its share of harm woes, with vast receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combining to overlook seven video games. Each gamers at the moment are again with the group to considerably enhance the Rams offense.
The passing recreation is significant for the Rams as a result of they battle to run the ball, rating thirty first in yards per carry (3.8).
Consequently, it is no shock that Los Angeles has the ninth-highest go play charge at 58.68 p.c.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford must be longing for his probability to face this Dolphins protection. In line with the FTN Fantasy Protection-adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA) metric, Miami ranks twenty seventh in opposition to the go.
Nonetheless, the Rams’ go protection is just one spot higher.
Professional Soccer Focus provides the same view. It has the Dolphins twenty sixth in go protection whereas grading the Rams because the third worst on this class.
Therefore, we play the factors.
This whole opened at 47.5 and was wager up as excessive as 49.5 earlier than we started to see a bit of little bit of buyback. It is now settling at 49 at most sportsbooks. As of Monday morning, 48.5 was nonetheless out there at FanDuel.
In an ideal state of affairs — or near excellent well being for each groups — this quantity would in all probability be nearer to 52.
Don’t go: take the worth and run with it.
Greatest wager: over 48.5 factors (-115 at FanDuel)
–Michael Nwaneri, Area Degree Media