Girls and gents, now we have a bracket!
The most effective occasions of yr is upon us, and Choice Sunday gave sports activities followers and bracket heads no scarcity of fabric to speak about. Let’s break down some early takeaways from this yr’s NCAA Match by naming one large winner and loser among the many No. 1 seeds, adopted by the worst snub and a darkish horse that might make the Candy 16.
Winner: Duke
Possibly Cooper Flagg can get away with resting his sprained ankle for one more week. By taking part in within the East Area, the Blue Devils have the best path on paper—simpler than No. 1 general seed Auburn. KenPom.com offers them the very best odds of reaching the Elite Eight (69.4%), the Last 4 (52.5%), the title sport (35.6%) and the championship itself (22.9%).
After opening towards a play-in winner, Duke will get Mississippi State or Baylor within the second spherical, two groups that sharply fell off within the again half of the season. I’m not nervous a couple of fourth-seeded Arizona that misplaced six of its final 11 and depends on one of many streakiest gamers within the sport in Caleb Love. Did I point out Duke will get a pair of veritable residence video games in Raleigh for the primary weekend?
Loser: Houston
Mar 15, 2025; Kansas Metropolis, MO, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson cuts the web after defeating the Arizona Wildcats within the Massive 12 Convention Match Championship sport at T-Cell Heart. Necessary Credit score: William Purnell-Imagn Photos I’ve sung the Cougars’ praises all yr, and Kelvin Sampson’s outfit has owned the Massive 12 for the 2 years it’s been a member. However in contrast to within the East, the Midwest Area has essentially the most harmful combo of groups within the 8-9 sport: Gonzaga and Georgia. Gonzaga had a quiet season by its requirements however nonetheless carries the No. 2 offense within the nation, whereas Georgia has knocked off St. John’s, Kentucky and Florida this yr.
Get previous that spherical, and Houston is probably going staring down Purdue or Clemson, two no-nonsense packages that made the title sport and the Elite Eight final yr, respectively, with a lot of their cores again for one more go-round. Houston has loads of work to do to show it gained’t crash out early within the second weekend, because it did every of the previous two years.
Snub: West Virginia
Mar 12, 2025; Kansas Metropolis, MO, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Javon Small (7) and Colorado Buffaloes ahead Andrej Jakimovski (23) collide below the basket throughout the first half at T-Cell Heart. Necessary Credit score: William Purnell-Imagn Photos Probably the most egregious snub from the sphere can also be the one apparent one this yr. I believe the committee obtained 67 of 68 groups appropriate, together with leaving out wounded Indiana on the finish of the day.
However on Bracket Matrix, which aggregates and scores dozens {of professional} and beginner bracketologists, 111 out of 111 brackets projected West Virginia as within the discipline earlier than the Choice Present. This was a workforce with six Quadrant 1 wins (versus North Carolina’s one), high-quality victories towards Gonzaga, Iowa State and Kansas, first rate metrics and no dangerous losses. This wasn’t speculated to be a bubble workforce.
Worse, the committee chair’s rationalization seemed like excuse-making. “They’d a very good yr general, however since (Tucker DeVries) was harm they did go 13-11—and once they beat Iowa State, Iowa State was short-handed as effectively,” Bubba Cunningham mentioned. Frankly, the Mountaineers can’t management whether or not their opponent is absolutely wholesome—and Javon Small, not DeVries, was their finest participant.
Darkish horse: Yale
Not one of the 10 or 11 seeds scream out to me as nice Candy 16 picks, however down right here on the No. 13 seed within the South Area, now we have a tantalizing one.
Yale toppled Auburn in a 4-13 sport final March, and regardless of shedding 7-footer Danny Wolf to the switch portal, the Bulldogs had been even higher this season, with the eighth-best 3-point proportion in Division I (38.8%). They’ve gained 16 of their final 17 video games, boat-raced the Ivy League and drew Texas A&M within the first spherical. Right here’s the open secret in regards to the Aggies: They typically overlook how one can rating factors and personal the worst discipline purpose proportion within the SEC.
Ought to Yale pull off one upset, its second-round opponent very effectively could possibly be No. 5 Michigan—the place Wolf now performs. I’d like to see that. The Wolverines simply gained the Massive Ten Match, but they’ve always outperformed their underlying metrics, a string of luck that feels certain to finish early within the match.