Wednesday October eighth Greatest MLB Playoff Betting Picks & Predictions | Deadspin.com

It is a packed day of MLB playoff motion! Right here’s a pair props I like at present.

Season Report: 20-19-2, -.06 Models

Phillies at Dodgers

Aaron Nola Over 2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-146 DraftKings)

The betting markets actually assume that we see little or no of Aaron Nola tonight. His Outs Recorded prop is at 8.5, although tilted to the over at -141. His Hits Allowed prop facilities round 3, juiced to -148 Over. I get it. The Phillies path 2-0 within the collection and clearly should win this one. They’ve Ranger Suarez to go in a piggyback function if Nola has the slightest of struggles. And maybe most significantly, Nola has not pitched properly this 12 months, with a 6.01 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. His ERA estimators paint a rosier image as he had a 4.25 xERA and three.81 SIERA.

Nola missed about half the season with accidents, however his strikeout numbers have remained fairly constant all through. He has a 24% Ok% and 11.2% SwStr% on the 12 months, nearly an identical to what he did in 2024 when he made each begin and had a 3.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. What’s simply gone is any form of consistency. In two of his final 4 common season begins, he yielded only one earned run in 14 mixed innings, with 16 Ok’s. Within the different two he gave up 10 earned runs in 11.1 IP and struck out 9.

I do know it is a leap of religion right here that we get Ace Nola, and even Serviceable Nola. Nevertheless it’s a extremely low Ok prop, so unsure we even want his finest model. We will win this if he merely will get by means of 2 innings.

Brewers at Cubs

Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-141 DraftKings)

Effectively I assume I’ve a theme at present. The market once more assumes the starter on a staff with their entire season on the road will get yanked on the slightest signal of hassle. And once more, that’s a protected assumption. I’m simply prepared to guess that the pitcher, on this case Taillon, can dangle in lengthy sufficient to surpass a meager Ok prop.

Taillon and Nola should not comparable, save for his or her age and the plight of their groups. Taillon profiles as a strong mid rotation starter however he’s supplied way more than that for the Cubs, with a 3.45 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 51 begins and 295 innings during the last 2 seasons. 

He simply doesn’t get many whiffs as he has an 8.8% SwStr% and 18.7% Ok%. This can be a wager extra on his total high quality as he could have to get by means of the 4th inning to get to three strikeouts right here. I say he does it. He pitched within the deciding Recreation 3 vs. the Padres final Thursday, and lasted 4 innings. He confronted 14 batters and struck out 4 of them, whereas giving up simply 2 hits and no walks or runs. He’s the Cubs finest starter proper now. I’ll roll together with his Ok prop right here.