9 NBA teams who can win the 2026 Finals, ranked by their championship chances

The NBA All-Star break isn’t really the halfway point in the season, but rather a notice to contenders around the league that it’s time to get serious. About 65 percent of the 2025-2026 regular season is already over, and there’s only about eight weeks until the playoffs start. March Madness might be the next big event on the sports calendar, but the playoffs will be here before you know it, and there’s already an inner and outer circle of contenders forming.

The NBA Playoffs are becoming increasingly harder to predict. No one would have anticipated the Indiana Pacers making the NBA Finals as a No. 4 seed last year, and it was even harder to believe that they pushed the Thunder to Game 7 before Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles. The Dallas Mavericks also made a shocking Finals run in 2024 as the No. 5 seed in the West. In 2023, the Miami Heat became the first No. 8 seed to ever make the Finals.

Will the league get another big upset this year? It’s on the table with how shaky even the top contenders have looked lately. Here are the nine teams that can win the 2026 NBA championship, ranked by who’s most likely to do it.

9. Houston Rockets

It sure doesn’t feel like the Rockets deserve a spot on this list right now given their recent play and ongoing injury issues, but they’ve been good enough since the start to the season to at least earn a mention. Houston still grades out well statistically exiting the All-Star break at No. 6 in offense, No. 5 in defense, and No. 6 in net-rating. Losing Steven Adams to a season-ending ankle injury just feels like a crushing blow that takes away from the Rockets’ identity of owning the glass and generating extra possessions. This team could really use a healthy Fred VanVleet right now with Reed Sheppard still not fully trusted by Ime Udokda, but that’s not happening. The Kevin Durant burner scandal is a potential distraction in the locker room if it’s true, but the bigger issue is that this team is still dead-last in three-point rate and can’t afford any kind of off-night with the limited number of threes they do generate. We’ve seen some Cinderella runs to the Finals in recent years as noted in the intro, and to me the Rockets still feel better than whoever the fifth-best East team is (Sixers?) or another West challenger like the Lakers.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs entered the season as one of two favorites to win the East along with the Knicks. They never really looked like an NBA Finals contender as injuries hit Darius Garland and Max Strus, plus the loss of Ty Jerome took a toll on what was an elite offense that helped the team win 64 games last year. The Cavs had to act like a desperate team at the deadline if they really wanted to regain their contender status, and that’s exactly what they did. Trading Garland for James Harden is a true stunner that breaks a golden rule in sports to never trade young for old. In this case, the older player is far more durable, but it’s still difficult to trust Harden in big moments given his playoff history. Harden wasn’t the only new addition at the deadline, with Keon Ellis and Dennis Schroder also arriving via the Kings to fortify what was a shaky bench. The Cavs fundamentally changed their team at the trade deadline more than any other contender, and putting them on this list so early in the Harden era is an acknowledgement that: a) they got better, b) the East really is wide open. With Donovan Mitchell playing as well as any guard in the world this side of SGA and Jarrett Allen potentially getting a big boost from Harden’s playmaking, Cleveland is suddenly a lot more interesting now than they were a few weeks ago. I’ll believe Harden can have the signature playoff run he’s always been missing when I see it, but on this team he doesn’t have to do the heavy lifting, just give them what Garland couldn’t in terms of reliability.

7. Boston Celtics

I really thought the Celtics would use Jayson Tatum’s torn Achilles as an excuse to take a gap year and try to land an elite young talent in the 2026 NBA Draft. After flirting with the idea for the first 20 games of the season, Boston took off and has been one of the best teams in the East ever since. Jaylen Brown has shined in a starring role without Tatum, putting together an All-NBA caliber season largely because he’s on fire as a mid-range shooter. Derrick White might be Boston’s real MVP so far, thriving in every way a great role player can thrive despite having a poor shooting season. Boston has discovered a few gems along the way, most notably in Neemias Queta, who has stabilized the front court with elite rebounding and play-finishing. Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez have also been critical bench pieces who defend and positively influence the possession game, while Nikola Vucevic came over at the trade deadline to add a stretch five look. If Tatum returns, he won’t have to do quite as much dirty work on this team as he’s accustomed to. How Brown and Tatum manage the scoring and creation burden will be interesting to watch, but it could be a good problem to have. The Celtics are once again super well coached, play their analytic-friendly style to a tee, and have a top-10 defense to fall back on. This team can absolutely win the East if Tatum looks anything like Tatum.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves reached the Western Conference Finals the last two seasons, and they will be a factor deep into the playoffs again this year. Anthony Edward is one of the best guards alive at age-24, and this season he’s debuted an improved mid-range game to go along with his deadly three-point shooting and ferocious rim-attacking. Edwards has a team full of long and athletic defenders behind him, starting with Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels. Gobert remains a plus-minus monster (+8 net-rating) because of his elite rim protection, and at this point it’s clear that Minnesota’s bold trade for him was a big win. The Wolves didn’t land Giannis at the trade deadline, but they did acquire Ayo Dosunmu, who does a lot to fill the void left by Nickeil Alexander-Walker when he departed in free agency. Dosunmu and Donte DiVincenzo need to hit shots when they’re on the floor, because otherwise it’s on Edwards to keep the team’s three-point rate alive. I’d love to see Edwards on a team with more spacing, but that’s the cost of a phenomenal defense helmed by Gobert. I’d probably pick the Wolves to win the East this year, but sadly for them, they remain in the West until expansion comes. There are other West teams I trust more than Minnesota, but they still have an outside shot at finally breaking through this year.

5. New York Knicks

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Knicks’ offense is awesome, but there’s reason to believe their defense isn’t built for the playoffs. New York had a similar problem last season, and firing Tom Thibodeau for Mike Brown hasn’t really solved things. It’s mostly the product of a highly talented but flawed roster-building product that put two of the league’s worst defenders (at least among offensive stars) together to start and close games. Jalen Brunson is a savant and a hero on his best days, but he’s also an 8th percentile defender by EPM who just doesn’t have the length and quickness to toughen up at the point of attack. Karl-Anthony Towns hasn’t been quite as good as a shooter this year, and he’s still the same frustrating defender who even pissed off Victor Wembanyama in the All-Star Game with his poor awareness. The Knicks’ highly-paid core gets all the attention, but I’m interested in what Miles McBride can add to this team if he can return from a core muscle injury that could reportedly sideline him until the playoffs. McBride was having a fantastic season and feels like one of the more underrated guards in the league at this point. He crushes with Brunson (+13.4 net-rating) and without him (+7.6 net-rating), and I don’t think they can win the East without him being healthy and productive. Mitchell Robinson’s rebounding will be another important factor in a potential NBA Finals run, and he’s always an injury concern even if he’s been largely healthy so far. The Knicks are still in Finals-or-bust mode, and there’s a lot of pressure to get it done this year with Tatum and Haliburton injured.

4. Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have been one of the best stories of the season, going from the worst team in the league two years ago to a young team on the rise that made the playoffs last year, to this season owning the league’s best winning percentage at the All-Star break. Detroit has gotten the job done with an elite defense, and Cade Cunningham making winning plays down the stretch as a lead shot-creator. Can that formula win in the playoffs? The Pistons do not have much shooting or spacing: they’re No. 27 in three-point rate, and No. 21 in three-point percentage so far this season. The rotation is deep, but it still feels like Cunningham has to do everything himself in crunch-time. I wanted Detroit to make a bigger splash at the deadline than Kevin Huerter (which was a trade largely made to move up in the draft), but given the state of the East, they still might be the favorites heading into the playoffs. I like that this feels like a classic Pistons team defined by defense and toughness. Good luck scoring on Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren inside, plus Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland on the wings. I’m not quite sold on Detroit’s offense yet, but they’ll have every chance to prove themselves on the biggest stages come playoff time.

3. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs shouldn’t be a championship contender this early into the Victor Wembanyama era, but at this point it’s impossible to keep them out of the conversation. Wembanyama hasn’t even played a playoff game yet, but he already has his team competing at the top of the West with his league-best rim protection and constantly evolving scoring profile. Wembanyama has the best supporting cast of his young career leading this charge up the standings. De’Aaron Fox has given San Antonio a sorely-needed on-ball creation element, while Stephon Castle has made big strides coming off his NBA Rookie of Year season and looks more comfortable and more efficient as a scorer despite still being a poor three-point shooter. The young guys can’t take all the credit, because veteran role players like Luke Kornet, Harrison Barnes, and Julian Champagnie have also been very good in what they’re asked to do. San Antonio’s profile is similar to Detroit’s as a young team that made a huge leap this season thanks to an elite defense, but the lack of shooting around a former No. 1 overall draft pick is a bit concerning. The Spurs feel like they’re at least a year ahead of schedule, but they’ve already showed they can beat OKC this season with three big wins, and that alone is enough to mark them as a serious championship contender.

2. Denver Nuggets

Will the Nuggets ever get healthy this season? If so, it still feels like they could be the best team in the league. Aaron Gordon has been bothered by another hamstring injury just like last year, and now his upstart replacement in the lineup, Peyton Watson, has been dragged down by the same injury. Nikola Jokic is back in the lineup even if he’ll probably miss too many games to win MVP, and he’s still the best player in the league for my money. Jokic has more help this year with Watson developing into a key piece, plus Jamal Murray having arguably the best season of his career, but it’s still on the Joker to put together a signature playoff run that gets this team its second championship. With a fully healthy lineup around him, I’d take Jokic’s Nuggets over anyone just as I did in the preseason, but there’s still so much uncertainty around their health that it feels like an increasingly risky bet.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder started this season at 24-1 and looked like they would be a heavy favorite to win the championship. Since then, OKC went 18-13 into the All-Star break, and looked a lot more beatable. Likely MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is currently sidelined with an abdominal injury, Jalen Williams is battling a hamstring strain after being kept out with a wrist injury to start the year, and breakout sophomore Ajay Mitchell has also been in and out of the lineup lately. OKC needs to know if Williams can get back to the All-NBA level he played at this year, because he just hasn’t been the same player this season. SGA can still take this team over the finish line, but his teammates need to hit some shots. The Thunder are still a pretty average shooting team from deep, and that can catch up to them in the playoffs. The defense will still be elite if Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Alex Caruso can all stay healthy for the playoffs, and that alone should make them the favorites before it starts. I really think SGA is a special player, and one of the three or four best guards the league has seen since Michael Jordan retired. He can carry the Thunder across the finish line to become the league’s first back-to-back champ since Kevin Durant was on the Golden State Warriors. It just doesn’t feel like this is an undeniable dynasty at this point.