49ers playoff picture: Updated postseason chances after crushing Browns in Week 13

The San Francisco 49ers watched Christian McCaffrey hit a Marshall Faulk accolade on Sunday. But more important, S.F. witnessed its playoff hopes ascend after thrashing the Cleveland Browns.

The Niners once saw themselves behind the rival Los Angeles Rams in two areas: The NFC West and the conference’s top seed. But the Carolina Panthers shook both up to benefit the 49ers — stunning the Rams in Charlotte.

Now the Rams sit at 9-3 and no longer sitting comfortably in both the top seed and division title race. San Francisco is beginning to breathe down L.A.’s neck once again with a 9-4 record.

And looking ahead, the schedule is setting up fiercely for the 49ers to make a late charge into the NFL Playoffs.

FTN Fantasy DVOA

Here, DVOA comes into the picture for the 49ers.

Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average is a metric that measures a team’s efficiency on every play to league average when accounting for situation and opponent. Even for the 49ers, down and distances are the situations, and strength of schedule is the opponent factor.

The 49ers sat at 7.7% before their romp of the Browns. It’s the third-best mark among NFC West teams — with Seattle coming in at 30.5% and the Rams sitting at 33.7%.

But 49er fans confused by the low percentage number shouldn’t fret. It also means that S.F. holds an 81.7% chance to make the postseason. That makes the 49ers’ chances higher than the 9-3 Chicago Bears, the 7-5 Detroit Lions, even the 6-5-1 Dallas Cowboys — all of whom are below 70.7%.

ESPN Playoff Projections

The 49ers’ chances via ESPN were higher.

San Francisco got handed a 91% probability to clinch one of the seven spots. The Monday Night Football win boosted S.F.’s chances, while Sunday’s rout likely will increase the 49ers’ percentage higher.

However, the Niners earned a 15% chance of overtaking the division. But hold the fourth-best chances of winning the conference with an 11% chance of making the Super Bowl.

The 49ers will soon host a lowly Tennessee Titans team enduring a coaching change. Then closes with a fierce gauntlet featuring a road trip to the Indianapolis Colts, hosting the NFC North leading Chicago Bears and closing with the Seahawks. Three of those final four games, though, are at Levi’s Stadium.

The Athletic’s Playoff Projections

The Athletic is the most current one, immediately updated following the morning action.

So what chances of making the postseason lie here for S.F.? The outlet handed Kyle Shanahan, Brock Purdy and company the sixth seed in the NFC postseason.

That means the Rams and Seahawks finish higher than S.F — but Shanahan still produces a playoff team. They’re handed a much higher 94% chance of gaining an 18th game after the regular season.

Though the Niners hold an 18% chance of securing the west and an 11% chance to earn the first round bye. The Athletic also handed S.F. only a 5% mark in winning the Super Bowl. Ironically, the Rams hold the highest chances via the outlet to win Super Bowl 60 — with the New England Patriots as their opponent in Santa Clara.

Overall, the 49ers managed to stay afloat amid the massive injury pileup. They’ve navigated without Nick Bosa and now top draft pick Mykel Williams. There’s even the Brandon Aiyuk contract standoff they’re dealing with.

The tough part arrives after the Titans game. But again, S.F. hosts most of those games — handing them a strong chance to return to the postseason after a year off.

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