49ers playoff picture: Updated DVOA, The Athletic, ESPN model odds ahead of Week 14

The San Francisco 49ers took care of business in Week 13, crushing the Cleveland Browns 26-8 on Sunday. That win improved the 49ers to 9-4 on the season and has them positioned well ahead of the playoffs. Now the 49ers simply need to take care of business during their final four games of the regular season and they should be in the dance.

If the regular season ended today, the 49ers would make the playoffs as a No. 7 seed in the NFC. Their record is better than “in the hunt” teams like the Lions (7-5), Cowboys (6-5-1), and Panthers (7-6).

San Francisco seems to be in a safe position. But that should not stop them from trying to run the table to secure a better seed in the postseason.

Below we will explore the 49ers’ odds to make the NFC playoffs ahead of Week 14.

49ers playoff odds: DVOA playoff model

The DVOA playoff model over at FTN Fantasy gives the 49ers a strong 88.7% chance to make the postseason.

This model gives San Francisco a high chance of making the playoffs as a wild card team with 76.5% odds. They only have a 12.2% chance of winning the NFC West, falling behind the Rams (51%) and Seahawks (36.8%).

FTN Fantasy has the 49ers almost certainly falling between the No. 5 and No. 7 seed in the NFC playoffs. They account for 76.6% of the simulated results.

San Francisco also has a slim chance (7.2%) of securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC, though they would certainly need some help to make that happen.

Either way, the outlook for the 49ers is strong headed into Week 14.

49ers playoff odds: The Athletic playoff model

The 49ers currently have a 91% chance to make the playoffs according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model.

San Francisco is almost universally viewed as a team bound for a wild card spot. They only have a 16% chance to win the division, which pales in comparison to the Rams (55%) and Seahawks (29%). The 49ers also has a 10% chance at the No. 1 seed and a 4% chance to win the Super Bowl.

The Athletic’s model also includes a projected standings feature.

Headed into Week 14, The Athletic’s projects that San Francisco will finish the season with an 11-6 record and make the playoffs as the No. 7 seed.

49ers playoff odds: ESPN playoff model

ESPN’s playoff model presents has arguably the most fascinating view of the 49ers of this group.

Their model gives San Francisco a 93% chance to make the playoffs headed into Week 14. That is tied for the best odds in the NFL with the Philadelphia Eagles.

That’s right, ESPN gives the 49ers a better chance to make the playoffs, period, than the Rams at 92%.

However, the Rams still have the best odds to win the NFC West at 49%. The 49ers only have a 26% chance to win the division.

Meanwhile, ESPN gives San Francisco a 15% chance to earn the No. 1 seed and a 14% chance to make the Super Bowl.

The general probabilities between these three models are roughly the same. But ESPN’s is unquestionably the most favorable for the 49ers.

How could Week 14 impact San Francisco’s playoff odds?

The 49ers are on their bye week in Week 14, which mean they will not be in control of how their odds change this week.

There are a few matchups that 49ers fans should keep their eyes on during this weekend’s action.

Naturally, 49ers fans will be rooting for the Seahawks to lose against the Falcons. Seattle falling to 9-4 would help San Francisco catch up in the NFC West divisional race. Similarly, it’s easy to root against the Rams (9-3) against the Cardinals (3-9).

Meanwhile, the 49ers could even get into good position for the No. 1 seed too.

The Bears (9-3) and Packers (8-3-1) play each other in Week 14. A victory for Green Bay would put San Francisco within striking distance of the No. 1 seed, as multiple teams would have nine wins.

Either way, the 49ers are set up well to gain some ground against the lowly Titans in Week 15. But it would be nice to get some help too.

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