4 keys for Thunder’s first win over Spurs

The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to avoid a season sweep at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs and avenge three losses to the team with the second-best record in the Western Conference. Must-wins aren’t in the Thunder’s vocabulary, but getting its lick back against a team that’s embarrassed the defending champions twice in 48 hours, including on its home floor on Christmas Day, is necessary.

It should be an organic development for the Thunder, which, for some, hasn’t been taking the Spurs as seriously as the up-and-coming team from the south, led by a 7-foot-6 phenom who’s on pace to become the face of the NBA. If you thought Oklahoma City lost three times in 12 days because the matchup “meant more” to the Spurs than the defending champions, that excuse no longer applies this time around.

Especially after Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander called the Spurs the better team between the two, which sets the stage for an exciting fourth installment of the league’s newest rivalry with the 2025 Finals championship banner perched above, here are four keys for a Thunder victory against the Spurs.

1. Unlocking Chet Holmgren’s offense

Victor Wembanyama says there’s no comparison between him and Thunder forward Chet Holmgren. If you ask, Holmgren will say players don’t decide rivalries. If you look at the tape, Wembanyama and the Spurs rattle the Thunder forward like no other team, especially recently, amid Chet’s breakout season. He averages 13.9 points on 48.8% shooting, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game in his career against the Spurs.

After Chet finished with 17 points on 3-of-8 shooting and went 10-for-12 from the free-throw line in a 111-109 NBA Cup semifinals loss, he produced another 17 points against the Spurs, but over the span of two games. Holmgren looked worst in the Thunder’s pair of losses to San Antonio on December 23 and Christmas Day. He combined for 8-of-19 shooting and made one trip to the charity stripe, as the Spurs completely took him out of his game.

What stands out most isn’t just how the Spurs manage to take away Holmgren’s space, but the level of physicality that comes with it. Wembanyama and the Spurs course-corrected their coverage on Chet, playing him cleanly and straight up, without fouling. Holmgren has to fight back. The Thunder should feature him in their offense early and often — whatever it takes to get him going.

2. Limiting Spurs’ De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle

Spurs starters De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Devin Vassell aren’t just score-first guards who can create off the dribble and defend at a high level — they’re playmakers, as well, which makes slowing them down all the more difficult for the Thunder. Add a 3-point touch to their respective game, and you see another one of the many facets that get the Spurs’ offense flowing in a hurry. Keldon Johnson will most likely start for Vassell, who’s ruled out for Tuesday’s game.

The Thunder defense has to make everything harder for Fox and Castle, the straws that stir the Spurs’ dynamic offense, led by All-Star Victor Wembanyama, who scores in every way imaginable for the Spurs. However, disrupting the backcourt is key to slowing everything down.

The efficient backcourt is a big reason the Spurs rank top 5 in the NBA with the fewest turnovers per game (13.7), trailing only the Thunder’s second-rated 12.2. Against the Spurs, turnovers haven’t been an issue for the Thunder, who committed only seven in their 117-102 loss on Christmas Day.

3. Transition defense amid Spurs’ fast break

Stopping the bleeding when the Spurs are rolling downhill has left the Thunder with double-digit deficits in all three December matchups, and they will have to sharpen their transition defense, or the same thing will happen again on Tuesday. The Spurs capitalized on the Thunder’s missed shots by attacking in a hurry, with their guards’ quickness, tenacity, and All-Star Victor Wembanyama’s impact, which isn’t very much “stopping” that.

Instead, Alex Caruso is hoping the Thunder can mitigate the damage, as he revealed how he learned the hard way why you shouldn’t plan to limit Wembanyama one-on-one.

“Play against him, obviously, don’t go 1-on-1. Well, I say that — I did that last game, he got a layup,” Caruso said. “I think you have to be smart. You have to be smart with your attacks just like any good defender. If you got prime Jrue Holiday or Tony Allen, you’re not going to try to ISO one-on-one from the wing; that’s not a very good option for you.

“Try to move him around, get him out of shell, get him in a closeout; just finding different ways to put him in positions that aren’t advantageous for him, but are for us.”

Wembanyama, who was on a minutes restriction due to a knee injury, is averaging 17.6 points on 54.3% shooting, including 4-for-5 from deep, 8.3 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks in 23.3 minutes against the Thunder this season. Caruso knows the Thunder will have their hands full in Tuesday’s matchup at the Paycom Center, which will be the first time Wembanyama is expected to start without any minutes restriction against the Thunder this season.

4. Thunder has to combat the Spurs’ physicality

It’s difficult to get under Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s skin, which is why seeing his shove Spurs All-Star Victor Wembanyama in the first quarter after scoring on him came as such a surprise. No one knows what was said, but watching Gilgeous-Alexander agitated so early against Wembanyama, was jaring, but the Spurs followed his lead.

Every possesion for Thunder forward Chet Holmgren came with an extra bump here, and a tough contest there, from Wembanyama, sometimes with words, other times with a hard-nosed box out that sent Holmgren to the ground. The Thunder will miss its starting center Isaiah Hartenstein, who typically matches that energy on both ends of the floor.

However, the defending champions have to find a way to increase its physicality that forces the Spurs to work harder on every offensive possession. Backup center Jaylin Williams, who played his first game since December 13, when the Spurs eliminated the Thunder in the NBA Cup semifinals, will see an uptick in minutes against the Spurs on Tuesday.

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